A 24-team playoff sounds great for the Group of Six. Don't get excited yet.

The American Football Coaches Association wants a 24-team College Football Playoff. The Big Ten has pushed the idea for months. Even the SEC appears to be warming to it.

For fans of Group of Six programs — the Pac-12, American, Sun Belt, Mountain West, MAC and Conference USA — the math looks obvious. More teams, more chances, right?

Not so fast, says Spencer McLaughlin of Locked On College Football.

On his latest episode, McLaughlin breaks down why a 24-team playoff might not change much for the G6 — and why the people making these decisions don't want it to.

What the coaches want

The AFCA laid out three proposals: expand the playoff to the maximum number of teams (24), eliminate conference championship games and end the season no later than the second Monday in January.

McLaughlin supports two of the three. Ending conference championship games? "Great idea." Wrapping the season by mid-January? "Another great idea."

The expansion itself is where it gets complicated for the G6.

The rule change nobody talks about

Two Group of Six teams made the College Football Playoff last season. The response from the power conferences? They rewrote the rules.

The old language guaranteed spots for the highest-rated conference champions. The new language guarantees four spots for the power conferences and one spot for the highest-ranked G6 team in the committee's playoff rankings — conference champion or not.

"The powers that be hated it so much they rewrote the rules to make sure that that won't automatically happen again," McLaughlin said.

Could two G6 teams still get in?

McLaughlin concedes it's theoretically possible. His scenario: a 12-1 Boise State that went undefeated before losing its Pac-12 championship game to a strong San Diego State team, paired with an 11-2 or 12-2 American champion ranked inside the top 20 with power four wins on its resume.

But his gut says the committee won't let it happen.

"My gut feeling tells me that they will find every excuse, every reason to not put a second Group of Six team into the College Football Playoff," McLaughlin said.

The real reason the G6 has a seat at the table

McLaughlin doesn't mince words on why the Group of Six has an automatic spot in the current format: it's not merit. It's legal exposure.

"The only real reason that the Big Ten, SEC, ACC, Big 12 have a Group of Six team automatically in there every season is to prevent an antitrust lawsuit," he said. "A lawsuit would be filed under anti-competitive grounds and the power four would lose. They would absolutely lose."

The G6 isn't at the table because the power conferences want them there. They're at the table because excluding them entirely would end up in court.

What it takes to break through

McLaughlin pointed to Tulane's 2025 season as a blueprint. The Green Wave beat Northwestern and ACC champion Duke — power four wins that McLaughlin called "the most lucrative form of currency in the Group of Six resume economy."

For a second G6 team to force its way into a 24-team field, the bar is absurdly high: go 12-0 with multiple power four wins, lose only in the conference championship game to a team that won't get an at-large bid and have a second G6 team simultaneously ranked inside the top 20 with its own power four wins.

"Their hand has to be forced in a significant way to where they can't ignore it," he said.

The Pac-12 factor

One development working in the G6's favor: the rebuilt Pac-12 is now part of the Group of Six conversation and is the strongest league outside the power four by a significant margin, according to ESPN's S&P+ metrics.

Whether that elevates the entire G6 or just creates a two-tier system within it remains to be seen.

What's your take?

Does a 24-team playoff actually help the Group of Six? Or is it just a bigger table with the same gatekeepers?

Drop your thoughts in the comments. We want to hear from the fan bases that this decision affects most — yours.

Spencer McLaughlin hosts Locked On College Football, part of the Locked On Podcast Network. You can subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.