The American at the halfway mark: Four tiers, one problem

Eight weeks into the season, the American Conference has 10 teams that Diehard projects to become bowl eligible. Ten of 14. No other conference in college football has that kind of depth.

No conference outside the power leagues has been more relevant in the College Football Playoff era. Cincinnati became the first Group of Five team to make the playoff in 2021. Tulane won the Cotton Bowl. UCF's undefeated 2017 season forced the national conversation that led to the expanded playoff. The American owned the Group of Six's marquee postseason bid for years — and the bigger conferences responded by poaching Cincinnati, UCF and Houston for the Big 12. The league reloaded. It always does.

But this year, that depth is narrowing the playoff path for the American's best teams.

The conference is loaded with competent, well-coached football teams that beat each other every weekend. The contenders trade losses. The middle of the league bites. And the result is a title race that's the most compelling in the Group of Six — with a playoff margin for error that's thinner than any of the contenders would like.

Here's where the conference stands after everyone has played two or three league games — broken into four tiers based on what we've seen, what the numbers say and what's left on the schedule.

Tier 1: The frontrunners

UTSA (6-1, 3-0 American)

The Roadrunners are the only team in the conference with an unblemished league record, and they've done it without being the most statistically dominant team in the American. UTSA ranks fifth in scoring offense (32.3 points per game) and sixth in total offense (411.1 yards per game). What separates them is efficiency and ball security — the Roadrunners have committed just three turnovers all season, tied for the fifth-fewest in the nation. Owen McCown completed 28 of 38 passes for 359 yards and three touchdowns in last week's 38-34 win over Navy and ranks 15th in FBS in completions per game. Under Jeff Traylor, UTSA is 27-1 at home in conference games dating to 2020.

UTSA's path to the title runs through a gauntlet of road games against teams that don't lose at home. Tulane is 3-0 at home and already beat Memphis there. UAB is 4-0 at home. But right now the Roadrunners probably are the only team in the American that could win their way into the CFP by winning out. Their only loss is at Texas.

Toughest remaining game: at Tulane (Week 8). Tulane's home record is the best in the conference.

Week | Game | Outlook

8 | at Tulane | Toss-up — Tulane hasn't lost at home and already knocked off Memphis there

10 | at FAU | Toss-up — FAU hasn't lost at home either and can outscore anybody

11 | vs North Texas | Toss-up — the best offense in the conference comes to town

12 | at UAB | Lean UTSA — UAB hasn't lost at home and the defense is elite, but probably the most manageable of this stretch

13 | vs Tulsa | Lean UTSA — Tulsa's turnover creation can flip any game

Look at the margins. UTSA beat Navy 38-34. Beat Texas State 31-26. Needed 59 points to survive a shootout at Colorado State 59-45. The Roadrunners are winning, but they're not separating from anyone. Every one of these remaining games is losable, and two or three losses from here wouldn't be a surprise.

Memphis (5-2, 2-1 American)

Memphis owns arguably the best nonconference result in the conference — a win over UNLV, a Mountain West contender. Marcus Stokes ranks inside the top 10 in FBS in passing efficiency, passing touchdowns and yards per completion, with 1,841 passing yards on the season (11th nationally). Jaylin Carter has rushed for 780 yards (seventh in FBS) and has topped 100 yards three times. The Tigers rank second in the American in both total offense (511.7 yards per game) and scoring offense (35.4 points per game), with a scoring defense that ranks fourth at 22.3 points allowed.

The Tigers already have two losses, and both matter. The win at UNLV is a legitimate nonconference data point. But Memphis lost at Boise State — and Boise is potentially the team the American's champion would be competing against for the Group of Six's automatic playoff bid. Then Memphis went to Tulane and lost 31-17 to a .500 conference team. The path to the conference title is still there. Memphis can run the table from here — Army and Temple at home, road trips to USF and Navy. But the playoff implications of those two losses are significant, and we'll get to that below.

Toughest remaining game: vs Army (Week 9). Army's scoring defense (20.0 ppg, 2nd in the American) is stingy, the Black Knights have turned the ball over just twice all season, and the triple option forces Memphis to prepare for something it won't see the rest of the season.

Week | Game | Outlook

8 | vs ECU | Lean Memphis — ECU's front seven leads the nation in TFL and sacks; dangerous unit even at home

9 | vs Army | Toss-up — the triple option is a nightmare prep and Army doesn't beat itself

11 | at USF | Toss-up — the best scoring defense in the conference, at their place

12 | at Navy | Lean Memphis — Navy at home with the option is never a free road win

13 | vs Temple | Memphis — the one comfortable game left on the schedule

A third loss would be a serious problem. Memphis needs to take care of business from here.

Tier 2: In the mix

Army (4-2, 3-1 American)

Army has the second-best scoring defense in the conference at 20.0 points per game, and the Black Knights have turned the ball over just twice all season — one of only four FBS programs that clean. Cale Hellums rushed for 195 yards and five touchdowns against Florida Atlantic last week and leads all of FBS in scoring at 13.3 points per game. Army rushed for 479 yards and eight touchdowns in that game, one shy of the league record. The triple option creates schematic problems for every team on the schedule.

Army already has a conference loss — to South Florida, at home. USF is 5-2 but just 1-2 in conference play. That result is the American's parity tax in a single box score. The Black Knights still have to travel to Memphis, which is probably another loss. Even at 9-3, Army would be a legitimate contender if the teams ahead of them stumble. The defense will keep them in every game. The question is whether Hellums and the rushing attack can outscore the conference's better passing attacks when the stakes get higher.

Toughest remaining game: at Memphis (Week 9). Army's rushing attack against the best passing attack in the conference, in a stadium where Memphis hasn't lost. This game likely decides whether Army stays in the title conversation or settles into a strong bowl position.

Week | Game | Outlook

8 | at Tulsa | Toss-up — Tulsa's turnover creation is elite and they're at home

9 | at Memphis | Lean Memphis — the best passing attack in the conference, at their place

10 | vs Air Force | Lean Army — nonconference, Army at home, but Air Force beat Navy 14-9

12 | vs ECU | Lean Army — but ECU's front seven could disrupt the triple option

13 | at Rice | Army — Rice is winless in conference play

14 | vs Navy (E. Rutherford) | Lean Army — both teams run the ball, and these games are always tight

Army needs the teams ahead of them to stumble. The defense will keep them in every game left on this schedule.

North Texas (4-2, 2-0 American)

North Texas is unbeaten in conference play, but the Mean Green have only played two league games. The offense is the most explosive in the American — 42.2 points per game (first) and 533.8 yards per game (first, third nationally). Tayven Jackson is seventh in FBS in passing yards with 1,868, 13th in passing efficiency and 16th in passing touchdowns. Jahiem White has rushed for 687 yards (12th in FBS) and has more 100-yard rushing games than anyone in the conference. The defense is the problem — 29.2 points allowed ranks 12th in the American.

The road is the other problem. North Texas is 1-2 away from home, and the two games that will define the season are both road trips — at UTSA and at Tulane. Those are two of the three toughest home environments in the conference. The Mean Green need to split them to stay in the race and sweep them to win it. Based on what we've seen from this conference on the road, sweeping them would be the most surprising result of the season.

Toughest remaining game: at UTSA (Week 11). UTSA is 27-1 at home in conference under Jeff Traylor and has committed just three turnovers all season. North Texas hasn't proven it can win a big road game yet.

Week | Game | Outlook

8 | at Navy | Lean UNT — but Navy is 2-0 at home with the triple option, and UNT's defense is a weakness

9 | vs FAU | Lean UNT — FAU can score with anyone, and Veltkamp is a top-10 passer nationally

10 | vs Rice | UNT — Rice is winless in conference play

11 | at UTSA | Lean UTSA — the toughest home environment in the conference

12 | at Tulane | Lean Tulane — another team that hasn't lost at home, and the defense is stingy

13 | vs UAB | Lean UNT — UAB is 0-3 on the road, but that defense travels

The offense can beat anyone. The defense and the road schedule are the questions.

Tier 3: The middle that bites

Six teams — Tulane, USF, FAU, UAB, Tulsa and ECU — sit between 3-3 and 5-2 overall. Any of them could still run the table and play their way into the title race. More likely, they'll beat a team or two above them at home and lose the road games that would have put them over the top. That's what this conference does. These teams likely will not win the league but might decide who does.

Tulane (3-3, 1-1 American)

The most dangerous team in the conference that nobody's talking about. Tulane is 3-0 at home and 0-3 on the road — the most extreme home-road split in the American alongside UAB. UTSA and North Texas still have to go to New Orleans. Tulane already beat Memphis there 31-17. The Green Wave rank third in scoring defense (21.7 ppg) and lead the American in red zone defense, allowing opponents to score on just 65.4% of red zone trips (sixth nationally). Kevin Adams III had nine tackles, two interceptions and a fumble recovery in the Memphis win. Any contender traveling to Yulman Stadium is in legitimate danger of losing.

The road losses tell you who Tulane is away from home — at Duke 17-3, at Kansas State 31-20, and wherever else they've traveled. This team can't score on the road (20.5 ppg, 12th in the American). But at home, Tulane is a conference title race wrecking ball.

Toughest remaining game: vs UTSA (Week 8). This Saturday.

Week | Game | Outlook

8 | vs UTSA | Toss-up — the conference leader comes to Yulman, where Tulane hasn't lost

9 | at Charlotte | Tulane — Charlotte is 1-6 and lost to The Citadel in triple overtime

10 | vs Tulsa | Lean Tulane — at home, but Tulsa's turnover creation makes them dangerous anywhere

11 | at Rice | Lean Tulane — Rice is winless in conference, but Tulane is winless on the road

12 | vs UNT | Toss-up — UNT brings the best offense in the conference, but has to win away from home

13 | at USF | Lean USF — the conference's stingiest defense, at their place

Tulane's season will be defined by what happens at Yulman Stadium. The road hasn't worked yet.

USF (5-2, 1-2 American)

The Bulls have the best scoring defense in the entire conference — 15.1 points per game, first in the American — and the second-best total defense at 325.1 yards per game. Michael Van Buren Jr. has thrown 179 consecutive passes without an interception. USF leads the American in red zone offense with 21 scores in 22 trips (eighth in FBS). The Bulls are 4-0 in nonconference play and have shown they can win games in different ways.

But USF is already 1-2 in conference despite the 5-2 overall record. The two conference losses are the problem, and the remaining schedule includes Memphis at home and a trip to FAU. Memphis at home in Week 11 is the most significant game left on this schedule — if the Bulls pull that upset, the title race changes.

Toughest remaining game: vs Memphis (Week 11). Memphis has the second-best offense in the conference. USF has the best defense. Something has to give.

Week | Game | Outlook

9 | vs UAB | Lean USF — UAB is 0-3 on the road, but has the conference's best total defense

10 | at ECU | Toss-up — ECU's front seven is the most disruptive in the country

11 | vs Memphis | Lean Memphis — but this is the best defensive matchup in the conference: USF's scoring D vs. Memphis's offense

12 | at FAU | Toss-up — FAU hasn't lost at home

13 | vs Tulane | Lean USF — Tulane is winless on the road

Two conference losses already. But the defense is real, and the Memphis game could change everything. It would be a mistake to write off the Bulls too early.

FAU (4-2, 1-1 American)

Florida Atlantic is 3-0 at home and has the third-best scoring offense in the conference at 35.0 points per game. Caden Veltkamp ranks eighth in FBS in passing yards per game (290.8), and Kelby Valsin leads the American in receiving yards (601), touchdowns (6) and receptions (47). The Owls can score on anybody.

The problem is on the other side of the ball. FAU allows 31.5 points per game (13th in the American) and 418.5 yards (12th). The offense keeps them in games, but the defense gives it back. The loss at Florida (66-21) was expected, but the loss at Army (56-24) showed that an elite rushing attack can destroy this defense. The remaining schedule includes UTSA and UNT at home — two games where FAU's offense could create an upset if the defense holds up for one afternoon.

Toughest remaining game: vs UTSA (Week 10). FAU has the home-field advantage and the offense to compete, but UTSA has been the steadiest team in the conference.

Week | Game | Outlook

8 | vs Rice | FAU — Rice is winless in conference play

9 | at UNT | Lean UNT — the best offense in the conference, at home

10 | vs UTSA | Toss-up — FAU's home-field advantage and scoring against UTSA's thin margins

11 | at Tulsa | Toss-up — Tulsa's turnover creation is the biggest threat to a high-scoring team

12 | vs USF | Lean FAU — home field, but USF's defense could suffocate the offense

13 | at ECU | Toss-up — ECU at home, likely with bowl eligibility on the line

The offense keeps FAU in every game. The defense is the reason they might not win enough of them.

UAB (4-3, 2-1 American)

UAB leads the entire conference in total defense at 316.6 yards per game. Muaaz Byard leads all FBS players with 46 solo tackles. Jo'Tavion Pierce had 16 tackles, a forced fumble and a pass breakup against ECU. Kicker Jonah Delange is 17-for-19 on field goals, the nation's leader in made field goals. The Blazers are 4-0 at home and 0-3 on the road — a fortress at home, helpless away from it.

The home schedule is what makes UAB dangerous. UTSA comes to Birmingham in Week 12, and the Blazers have already shown they can win conference games at home. QB Ryder Burton threw a touchdown pass with 35 seconds left in regulation and ran in the two-point conversion to force overtime. He threw another TD in OT, and Delvon Gulley sealed it with an 80-yard interception return in the 30-17 win over ECU. The offense ranks 11th in the conference (23.3 ppg), so UAB has to win with defense and close games. That's hard to sustain, but it's been enough at home.

Toughest remaining game: vs UTSA (Week 12). The biggest home game of the season. UTSA is the conference leader, but UAB hasn't lost at home.

Week | Game | Outlook

9 | at USF | Lean USF — UAB's road woes against the conference's stingiest defense

10 | vs Charlotte | UAB — Charlotte is 1-6

11 | at Temple | Lean UAB — Temple is 2-5, but any road game is a question for a team that's 0-3 away from home

12 | vs UTSA | Toss-up — the conference leader comes to a place where UAB hasn't lost; UTSA's margins have been thin

13 | at UNT | Lean UNT — the best offense in the conference, at home

If UAB can find a way to win even one road game down the stretch, the UTSA game in Week 12 becomes one of the biggest in the conference.

Tulsa (4-3, 1-2 American)

Tulsa has the most impressive nonconference win in the conference outside of Memphis — a 24-10 beatdown of Oklahoma State. The Golden Hurricane also knocked off Sam Houston 23-17. In conference play, Tulsa already has an upset of note. DL Kyran Duhon leads the American with 6.0 sacks, and the defense has forced 15 turnovers, sixth-most in the country with a +1.57 turnover margin (fourth-best in FBS). QB Baylor Hayes threw for 249 yards and three touchdowns against Rice.

Tulsa is the team that nobody in the top half of this conference wants to play. Two conference losses put them behind, but five conference games remain and the defensive playmakers and turnover creation can ruin someone's season on any given Saturday.

Toughest remaining game: vs Army (Week 8). Army rushed for 479 yards and eight touchdowns last week. Tulsa's run defense will be tested at its limit.

Week | Game | Outlook

8 | vs Army | Toss-up — Army rushed for 479 yards last week, but Tulsa's at home with the defense to force mistakes

10 | at Tulane | Lean Tulane — another team that hasn't lost at home, and the defense matches up

11 | vs FAU | Toss-up — FAU can outscore most teams, but Tulsa's turnover creation could flip it

12 | vs Charlotte | Tulsa — Charlotte is 1-6

13 | at UTSA | Lean UTSA — the toughest road game on the schedule

The Golden Hurricane can spoil anyone's season. They just might.

ECU (3-3, 1-1 American)

East Carolina has elite defensive numbers that don't match the record. The Pirates lead the nation in tackles for loss per game (10.2), and they're also tops nationally in sacks and pass efficiency defense. Kieran Davis is tied for the conference lead with 8.0 TFL. RB TJ Engleman Jr. rushed for 104 yards against UAB and ranks 11th in FBS averaging 6.9 yards per carry.

ECU lost at UAB 30-17 in overtime after leading in regulation. The defense is good enough to hang with anyone in this conference. The question is whether the offense — which ranks 10th in the American in scoring (23.5 ppg) — can score enough to capitalize on all the opportunities that front seven creates.

Toughest remaining game: at Memphis (Week 8). Memphis is 4-0 at home with the second-best offense in the conference.

Week | Game | Outlook

8 | at Memphis | Lean Memphis — the second-best offense in the conference, at home

9 | vs Temple | Lean ECU — Temple is 2-5

10 | vs USF | Toss-up — both defenses are elite; comes down to which offense can move the ball

11 | at Charlotte | ECU — Charlotte is 1-6

12 | at Army | Lean Army — the triple option neutralizes ECU's pass rush advantage

13 | vs FAU | Toss-up — FAU can outscore most teams, but ECU at home with bowl eligibility likely on the line

The defense is elite. If the offense catches up, ECU is a problem for everyone left on the schedule.

The home-road splits tell the story. UTSA, Memphis, North Texas, Tulane, FAU and UAB are a combined 22-0 at home. Those same teams are 4-13 on the road. In this conference, the road is where title hopes go to die.

Tier 4: Charlotte and Rice

Charlotte (1-6, 1-2 American) and Rice (1-6, 0-3 American) haven't shown they belong in this conversation yet. Charlotte is scoring 19.1 points per game and allowing 40.6 — last in the American in both total defense and scoring defense. The 49ers lost to The Citadel in triple overtime. Rice is scoring 17.0 and allowing 29.0, winless in conference play.

Neither team is mathematically eliminated — there are still five conference games left for both. But neither has given any evidence that a run is coming. These two teams matter to the race because every team in tiers 1 through 3 gets at least one game against this tier. That inflates overall records and makes the conference look deeper than it is from the outside. Internally, everyone in the American knows the gap between 2nd and 12th is a lot smaller than the gap between 12th and 14th.

What it means for the playoff

If Memphis wins out, the Tigers are in the playoff conversation. If UTSA runs the table — or even drops one — the Roadrunners are probably in it too. Nobody in this conference is eliminated from anything. There's too much football left.

But the margin for error is thin. The American is the most-raided conference in the transfer portal. Every offseason, the bigger leagues poach the best quarterbacks, the best coordinators and the best head coaches. The programs reload — that's why the conference stays competitive — but reloading creates parity, and parity creates losses. It's possible the American champion finishes with three losses.

The competition is what makes the margin so tight. Boise State has a head-to-head win over Memphis and is running through the Pac-12. Oregon State is surging in that same conference — and if the Beavers win out and take the league title, it's worth asking whether the committee rewards their status as a former power conference program over an American champion. James Madison looks poised to go undefeated. New Mexico has one loss. North Dakota State is an exciting, high-quality newcomer to FBS. If chalk holds in those conferences, they're all going to have compelling cases. The American's champion might too — but with less room for another stumble.

The American's parity isn't a flaw. Every program in this conference has something. Nobody has everything. The question is whether the committee sees that as a strength or a liability when December comes.