Diehard Picks: Week 10

No. 20 Buffalo (5-3, 3-1 MAC) at No. 18 Miami OH (5-3, 3-1 MAC) opens the week Tuesday night on ESPN (7 PM CT) in a top-20 MAC showdown. Both are behind unbeaten Ohio (4-0). The loser drops to fourth in the conference standings with the head-to-head tiebreaker gone. Miami is a 6.5-point home favorite — Buffalo gets the points.

Five ranked-vs-ranked matchups headline the full Week 10 slate — the most ranked-vs-ranked action of the season. No. 16 Wyoming (5-3, 4-1 MW) at No. 22 UNLV (5-3, 3-1 MW) on Saturday night at Allegiant Stadium (9:30 PM CT, CBSSN) is the week's headliner — an effective Mountain West elimination game. Both are chasing unbeaten No. 2 New Mexico (4-0 MW). The loser falls two games back with three weeks remaining. No. 3 UTSA (7-1, 4-0 American) visits No. 25 FAU (5-3, 2-2 American) on Thursday (6:30 PM CT, ESPN) with the week's highest over/under at 71.5 — last week's FAU-North Texas game hit 89 combined points on the same total. No. 24 Texas State (4-4, 2-2 Pac-12) at No. 7 Oregon State (5-3, 3-1 Pac-12) on Saturday night (9:30 PM CT, CW) features the week's newest ranked team after Texas State pushed No. 1 Boise State to 46-45. And No. 21 Air Force (6-2, 3-2 MW) at No. 23 Army (5-3, 4-2 American) on Saturday (6:30 PM CT, CBS) is the annual rivalry with conference implications for both teams.

The week's most notable line belongs to No. 11 South Florida (6-2, 2-2 American), which visits unranked East Carolina (4-4, 2-2 American) as a 1.5-point underdog on Friday (6:30 PM CT, ESPN2). South Florida gets the upset pick.

All rankings are from the Diehard G6 Top 25, our weekly poll of the top 25 teams outside the Power 4.

Two upset picks this week: Troy over Louisiana Tech, South Florida over East Carolina.

Three ATS fades: Marshall +10 at Georgia Southern, South Alabama +9.5 at Louisiana, Buffalo +6.5 at Miami (OH).

Last week: SU 22-6 | ATS 15-13

Season: SU 229-70 (.766) | ATS 155-134-5 (.536)

Tuesday

DG6 No. 12 Ohio (6-2, 4-0 MAC) at Akron (1-7, 0-4 MAC)

OHIO -12.5 | O/U 50.5

Pick: Ohio 30, Akron 13 — Ohio covers

DG6 No. 20 Buffalo (5-3, 3-1 MAC) at DG6 No. 18 Miami OH (5-3, 3-1 MAC)

M-OH -6.5 | O/U 44.5

Pick: Miami (OH) 24, Buffalo 21 — Buffalo covers

Wednesday

Ball State (2-6, 1-3 MAC) at Massachusetts (3-5, 1-3 MAC)

MASS -3.5 | O/U 49.5

Pick: UMass 31, Ball State 24 — UMass covers

Central Michigan (2-6, 1-3 MAC) at Eastern Michigan (3-5, 2-2 MAC)

EMU -1.5 | O/U 44.5

Pick: Eastern Michigan 23, Central Michigan 20 — Eastern Michigan covers

DG6 No. 9 Toledo (6-2, 3-1 MAC) at Sacramento State (2-7, 0-5 MAC)

TOL -25.5 | O/U 52.5

Pick: Toledo 41, Sacramento State 17 — Sacramento State covers

Thursday

DG6 No. 3 UTSA (7-1, 4-0 American) at DG6 No. 25 FAU (5-3, 2-2 American)

UTSA -7 | O/U 71.5

Pick: UTSA 34, Florida Atlantic 30 — FAU covers

DG6 No. 10 James Madison (7-2, 5-1 Sun Belt) at Southern Miss (3-5, 1-3 Sun Belt)

JMU -14.5 | O/U 57.5

Pick: James Madison 31, Southern Miss 20 — Southern Miss covers

Friday

DG6 No. 11 South Florida (6-2, 2-2 American) at East Carolina (4-4, 2-2 American)

ECU -1.5 | O/U 40.5

Pick: South Florida 23, East Carolina 21 — South Florida covers and wins outright

DG6 No. 2 New Mexico (7-1, 4-0 MW) at Nevada (3-5, 2-2 MW)

UNM -10 | O/U 38.5

Pick: New Mexico 27, Nevada 20 — Nevada covers

Saturday

Tulsa (4-4, 2-2 American) at Tulane (3-5, 1-3 American)

TLSA -1.5 | O/U 50.5

Pick: Tulsa 37, Tulane 31 — Tulsa covers

North Carolina at UConn (4-4)

UNC -7 | O/U 54.5

Pick: North Carolina 33, UConn 24 — North Carolina covers

Old Dominion (2-6, 1-4 Sun Belt) at Coastal Carolina (3-5, 1-3 Sun Belt)

CCU -7.5 | O/U 44.5

Pick: Coastal Carolina 31, Old Dominion 21 — Coastal Carolina covers

DG6 No. 17 App State (5-3, 3-1 Sun Belt) vs Georgia State (4-4, 1-3 Sun Belt)

APP -3.5 | O/U 55.5

Pick: App State 30, Georgia State 17 — App State covers

UL Monroe (1-7, 1-3 Sun Belt) at Arkansas State (4-4, 2-2 Sun Belt)

ARST -14.5 | O/U 52.5

Pick: Arkansas State 37, ULM 17 — Arkansas State covers

Delaware (4-4, 2-2 CUSA) at Kennesaw State (2-6, 1-3 CUSA)

DEL -2.5 | O/U 55.5

Pick: Delaware 30, Kennesaw State 24 — Delaware covers

Charlotte (1-7, 1-3 American) at UAB (4-4, 2-2 American)

UAB -11.5 | O/U 47.5

Pick: UAB 30, Charlotte 17 — UAB covers

Temple (2-6, 1-3 American) at Navy (3-5, 2-3 American)

NAVY -7.5 | O/U 53.5

Pick: Navy 27, Temple 16 — Navy covers

Marshall (4-4, 1-3 Sun Belt) at Georgia Southern (4-4, 2-2 Sun Belt)

GASO -10 | O/U 54.5

Pick: Georgia Southern 23, Marshall 21 — Marshall covers

Western Kentucky (4-4, 3-1 CUSA) at Middle Tennessee (4-4, 2-2 CUSA)

WKU -1.5 | O/U 53.5

Pick: WKU 30, MTSU 24 — WKU covers

DG6 No. 4 North Texas (6-2, 4-0 American) vs Rice (1-7, 0-4 American)

UNT -16.5 | O/U 64.5

Pick: North Texas 38, Rice 19 — North Texas covers

DG6 No. 14 Louisiana Tech (6-2, 4-0 Sun Belt) at Troy (4-4, 2-2 Sun Belt)

LT -5.5 | O/U 47.5

Pick: Troy 24, Louisiana Tech 21 — Troy covers and wins outright

Northern Illinois (0-8, 0-4 MW) at San Jose State (4-4, 2-2 MW)

SJSU -10 | O/U 52.5

Pick: San Jose State 26, Northern Illinois 13 — San Jose State covers

Missouri State (2-6, 1-3 CUSA) at Florida International (3-5, 1-3 CUSA)

FIU -4 | O/U 50.5

Pick: FIU 24, Missouri State 19 — FIU covers

South Alabama (4-4, 2-2 Sun Belt) at Louisiana (4-4, 2-2 Sun Belt)

UL -9.5 | O/U 58.5

Pick: Louisiana 27, South Alabama 24 — South Alabama covers

DG6 No. 1 Boise State (7-1, 4-0 Pac-12) at Colorado State (3-5, 1-3 Pac-12)

BOIS -17.5 | O/U 68.5

Pick: Boise State 41, Colorado State 21 — Boise State covers

DG6 No. 13 Jacksonville State (6-2, 4-0 CUSA) vs Sam Houston (1-7, 0-4 CUSA)

JXST -16.5 | O/U 48.5

Pick: Jacksonville State 34, Sam Houston 13 — Jacksonville State covers

DG6 No. 21 Air Force (6-2, 3-2 MW) at DG6 No. 23 Army (5-3, 4-2 American)

ARMY -3.5 | O/U 48.5

Pick: Army 27, Air Force 21 — Army covers

DG6 No. 8 Liberty (7-1, 4-0 CUSA) at New Mexico State (3-5, 2-2 CUSA)

LIB -17.5 | O/U 47.5

Pick: Liberty 45, New Mexico State 14 — Liberty covers

Hawai'i (4-4, 2-2 MW) at UTEP (1-7, 0-4 MW)

HAW -9.5 | O/U 48.5

Pick: Hawai'i 40, UTEP 28 — Hawai'i covers

DG6 No. 19 Fresno State (5-3, 2-2 Pac-12) at Utah State (3-5, 1-3 Pac-12)

FRES -2.5 | O/U 42.5

Pick: Fresno State 30, Utah State 24 — Fresno State covers

DG6 No. 24 Texas State (4-4, 2-2 Pac-12) at DG6 No. 7 Oregon State (5-3, 3-1 Pac-12)

ORST -6.5 | O/U 70.5

Pick: Oregon State 44, Texas State 34 — Oregon State covers

DG6 No. 16 Wyoming (5-3, 4-1 MW) at DG6 No. 22 UNLV (5-3, 3-1 MW)

UNLV -7 | O/U 47.5

Pick: UNLV 31, Wyoming 23 — UNLV covers