Diehard Picks: Week 11

Week 11 of the 2026 college football season opens with MACtion action between two teams ranked in the Diehard G6 Top 25.

No. 10 Ohio (7-2, 5-0 MAC) at No. 24 Miami OH (5-4, 3-2 MAC) opens the week Tuesday night on ESPN2 (7 PM CT). Ohio is 5-0 in MAC play for the first time since 1997 and the conference's lone unbeaten. Miami is a 1.5-point home favorite despite the inferior conference record. Ohio gets the upset pick.

Six matchups between Diehard top 25 teams headline the full slate — the most in a single week this season for the second straight week.

No. 3 North Texas (7-2, 5-0 American) at No. 8 UTSA (7-2, 4-1 American) on Saturday night at the Alamodome (8 PM CT, ESPNU) is the week's headliner. North Texas has won six straight and is a 1.5-point road favorite. UTSA is coming off a 60-29 loss at FAU — but all four of the Roadrunners' conference wins have come at home. The 76.5 over/under is the highest on the G6 board. UTSA gets the upset pick.

No. 18 Oregon State (5-4, 3-2 Pac-12) at No. 1 Boise State (8-1, 5-0 Pac-12) on Saturday (5 PM CT, USA Network) is the week's clinch game — Boise State wins, Boise State wins the Pac-12 regular season championship and home-field advantage in the championship game. Max Cutforth went 16-of-19 for 317 yards and four touchdowns in his first start after Maddux Madsen's knee injury. Oregon State has lost two straight.

No. 25 Fresno State (5-4, 2-3 Pac-12) at No. 16 Texas State (5-4, 3-2 Pac-12) on Saturday (3 PM CT, CW) features a Texas State team that rolled up 600 total yards — 386 on the ground — in a 42-21 win at Oregon State last week.

No. 17 FAU (6-3, 3-2 American) at No. 23 Tulsa (5-4, 2-3 American) on Saturday (2:30 PM CT, ESPN+) features two teams that each scored 60 last week — the 73.5 over/under is the second-highest on the board.

No. 4 Memphis (7-2, 4-1 American) at No. 20 South Florida (6-3, 2-3 American) on Thursday at 7 PM CT on ESPN is the week's marquee television game. Memphis is still alive for the American championship — and a Memphis team that wins out has a case for the College Football Playoff. The Tigers blew out then-No. 9 Army 49-22 in their last game. South Florida has lost two of three, including a 20-17 defeat at East Carolina on a 55-yard field goal with two seconds remaining. Memphis is a 5.5-point road favorite.

Four upset picks this week: Ohio over Miami (OH), UAB over Temple, UTSA over North Texas, San Diego State over Utah State.

Eight ATS fades: Western Michigan, Bowling Green, Toledo, Central Michigan, Louisiana, Liberty, Louisiana Tech and Air Force all win but do not cover.

Last week: SU 18-14 | ATS 10-22

Season: SU 247-84 (.746) | ATS 165-156-5 (.514)

Tuesday

DG6 No. 14 Western Michigan (6-3, 4-1 MAC) at Akron (1-8, 0-5 MAC)

WMU -14.5 | O/U 47.5

Pick: Western Michigan 28, Akron 20 — Akron covers

Kent State (3-6, 2-3 MAC) at Bowling Green (2-7, 2-3 MAC)

BGSU -6 | O/U 45.5

Pick: Bowling Green 24, Kent State 20 — Kent State covers

DG6 No. 10 Ohio (7-2, 5-0 MAC) at DG6 No. 24 Miami OH (5-4, 3-2 MAC)

M-OH -1.5 | O/U 48.5

Pick: Ohio 23, Miami (OH) 21 — Ohio covers and wins outright

Wednesday

DG6 No. 19 Buffalo (6-3, 4-1 MAC) at Ball State (3-6, 2-3 MAC)

BUF -2.5 | O/U 51.5

Pick: Buffalo 27, Ball State 21 — Buffalo covers

DG6 No. 11 Toledo (7-2, 4-1 MAC) vs Massachusetts (5-4, 2-3 MAC)

TOL -14.5 | O/U 52.5

Pick: Toledo 34, UMass 28 — UMass covers

Sacramento State (2-8, 1-6 MAC) at Central Michigan (4-5, 2-3 MAC)

CMU -17.5 | O/U 43.5

Pick: Central Michigan 31, Sacramento State 17 — Sacramento State covers

Thursday

DG6 No. 4 Memphis (7-2, 4-1 American) at DG6 No. 20 South Florida (6-3, 2-3 American)

MEM -5.5 | O/U 48.5

Pick: Memphis 27, South Florida 20 — Memphis covers

DG6 No. 21 Louisiana (6-3, 3-2 Sun Belt) at UL Monroe (2-7, 2-3 Sun Belt)

UL -11.5 | O/U 48.5

Pick: Louisiana 30, ULM 24 — ULM covers

Saturday

DG6 No. 9 James Madison (8-2, 5-2 Sun Belt) at UConn (4-5)

JMU -3.5 | O/U 57.5

Pick: James Madison 31, UConn 24 — James Madison covers

UAB (5-4, 3-2 American) at Temple (2-7, 1-4 American)

TEM -2.5 | O/U 48.5

Pick: UAB 26, Temple 21 — UAB covers and wins outright

UAB has won all five home games this season and is 3-2 in American play. Temple is 1-4 in conference and has lost four straight. The Blazers are the underdog, but Temple has not beaten a team with a winning record all season. Take UAB.

East Carolina (5-4, 3-2 American) at Charlotte (1-8, 1-4 American)

ECU -11.5 | O/U 44.5

Pick: East Carolina 27, Charlotte 14 — East Carolina covers

Arkansas State (4-5, 2-3 Sun Belt) at Coastal Carolina (3-6, 2-3 Sun Belt)

CCU -1.5 | O/U 50.5

Pick: Coastal Carolina 28, Arkansas State 24 — Coastal Carolina covers

Tulane (4-5, 2-3 American) at Rice (1-8, 0-5 American)

RICE -2.5 | O/U 48.5

Pick: Rice 27, Tulane 21 — Rice covers

Kennesaw State (3-6, 2-3 CUSA) at Sam Houston (1-8, 0-5 CUSA)

KENN -8.5 | O/U 47.5

Pick: Kennesaw State 30, Sam Houston 17 — Kennesaw State covers

New Mexico State (3-6, 2-3 CUSA) at Missouri State (3-6, 2-3 CUSA)

MOST -2.5 | O/U 49.5

Pick: Missouri State 27, New Mexico State 21 — Missouri State covers

Florida International (4-5, 2-3 CUSA) at Delaware (4-5, 2-3 CUSA)

DEL -5.5 | O/U 53.5

Pick: Delaware 30, FIU 20 — Delaware covers

DG6 No. 12 Jacksonville State (7-2, 5-0 CUSA) at Western Kentucky (3-6, 2-3 CUSA)

JXST -7 | O/U 53.5

Pick: Jacksonville State 30, WKU 20 — Jacksonville State covers

Jax State has won six straight and is 5-0 in CUSA. Western Kentucky has lost two in a row. The Gamecocks are the best team in CUSA alongside Liberty and should win comfortably on the road.

DG6 No. 17 FAU (6-3, 3-2 American) at DG6 No. 23 Tulsa (5-4, 2-3 American)

TLSA -5.5 | O/U 73.5

Pick: Tulsa 37, FAU 31 — Tulsa covers

DG6 No. 22 Georgia Southern (5-4, 4-1 Sun Belt) at Georgia State (5-4, 2-3 Sun Belt)

GASO -5.5 | O/U 56.5

Pick: Georgia Southern 34, Georgia State 24 — Georgia Southern covers

DG6 No. 6 Liberty (8-1, 5-0 CUSA) vs Middle Tennessee (5-4, 3-2 CUSA)

LIB -21.5 | O/U 53.5

Pick: Liberty 29, MTSU 10 — MTSU covers

Nevada (3-6, 2-3 MW) at Northern Illinois (0-9, 0-5 MW)

NEV -7.5 | O/U 46.5

Pick: Nevada 27, Northern Illinois 14 — Nevada covers

DG6 No. 25 Fresno State (5-4, 2-3 Pac-12) at DG6 No. 16 Texas State (5-4, 3-2 Pac-12)

TXST -8.5 | O/U 60.5

Pick: Texas State 41, Fresno State 28 — Texas State covers

DG6 No. 7 Louisiana Tech (7-2, 5-0 Sun Belt) vs Southern Miss (3-6, 2-3 Sun Belt)

LT -17.5 | O/U 54.5

Pick: Louisiana Tech 30, Southern Miss 20 — Southern Miss covers

DG6 No. 18 Oregon State (5-4, 3-2 Pac-12) at DG6 No. 1 Boise State (8-1, 5-0 Pac-12)

BOIS -10.5 | O/U 66.5

Pick: Boise State 37, Oregon State 24 — Boise State covers

App State (5-4, 2-3 Sun Belt) at Marshall (5-4, 2-3 Sun Belt)

APP -2.5 | O/U 53.5

Pick: App State 24, Marshall 17 — App State covers

DG6 No. 15 Air Force (7-2, 3-2 MW) vs San Jose State (5-5, 3-3 MW)

AF -11.5 | O/U 47.5

Pick: Air Force 28, San Jose State 17 — San Jose State covers

UNLV (5-4, 3-2 MW) at DG6 No. 2 New Mexico (8-1, 5-0 MW)

UNM -14 | O/U 46.5

Pick: New Mexico 42, UNLV 24 — New Mexico covers

Troy (4-5, 2-3 Sun Belt) at South Alabama (4-5, 2-3 Sun Belt)

USA -2.5 | O/U 55.5

Pick: South Alabama 30, Troy 24 — South Alabama covers

The annual Battle of the Belt in Mobile. Both are 4-5 overall and 2-3 in Sun Belt play. The loser would need to win out to reach bowl eligibility. South Alabama is at home. Jags by 6.

DG6 No. 3 North Texas (7-2, 5-0 American) at DG6 No. 8 UTSA (7-2, 4-1 American)

UNT -1.5 | O/U 76.5

Pick: UTSA 35, North Texas 31 — UTSA covers and wins outright

Utah State (4-5, 3-2 Pac-12) at San Diego State (4-5, 3-2 Pac-12)

USU -2.5 | O/U 41.5

Pick: San Diego State 24, Utah State 21 — San Diego State covers and wins outright

DG6 No. 13 Wyoming (6-3, 5-1 MW) at UTEP (1-8, 0-5 MW)

WYO -8.5 | O/U 40.5

Pick: Wyoming 27, UTEP 10 — Wyoming covers

DG6 No. 5 North Dakota State (7-2, 4-2 MW) at Hawai'i (3-6, 2-4 MW)

NDSU -7 | O/U 39.5

Pick: North Dakota State 28, Hawai'i 17 — NDSU covers

Colorado State (3-6, 1-4 Pac-12) at Washington State (1-8, 0-5 Pac-12)

WSU -8.5 | O/U 67.5

Pick: Washington State 30, Colorado State 20 — Washington State covers