The Really Big Preview: South Alabama at Kentucky — Week 4

South Alabama has played three games without committing a turnover — 79 pass attempts, no interceptions, no lost fumbles — and takes that clean sheet to Kroger Field on Saturday against a Kentucky defense that has picked off four passes in three games. The Wildcats are 20.5-point favorites.

Game Details

Matchup: South Alabama Jaguars (2-1, 0-0 Sun Belt) at Kentucky Wildcats (2-1, 1-1 SEC)

Date: Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026

Time: 11:45 a.m. CT / 12:45 p.m. ET

TV: SEC Network

Location: Kroger Field, Lexington, Ky. (61,000)

Series: First meeting

Spread: Kentucky -20.5 (FanDuel -110)

Over/Under: 54.5

Moneyline: Kentucky -1786 / South Alabama +920 (FanDuel)

The Stakes

Kentucky becomes the seventh current SEC program South Alabama has faced. The Jaguars are 1-8 all-time against current SEC members, with their lone victory coming at Mississippi State on Sept. 3, 2016 — a 21-20 win. South Alabama's Sun Belt schedule opens Oct. 3 against ULM, making Saturday the last nonconference game on the calendar.

Kentucky beat No. 9 Texas A&M 31-21 on the road last week — Will Stein's first road win, first SEC road win and first win over an AP Top-10 team as head coach. The Wildcats are 171-43-5 (.792) against nonconference opponents at home since the Bear Bryant era.

The Numbers

36:46 — South Alabama's average time of possession per game, second nationally. The Jaguars held the ball for 40:09 against Southeastern Louisiana (a program record), 37:40 at Tulane and 32:30 against Ohio.

13-of-14 — South Alabama's red zone scoring rate through three games (92.9%).

52 — Career-long field goal (in yards) by Kentucky kicker Adam Zouagui, banged off the left upright at Texas A&M to give Kentucky a 31-14 fourth-quarter lead.

5 — Tackles needed for Kentucky linebacker Alex Afari Jr. to reach 200 career tackles.

About South Alabama

The Jaguars are 2-1 — a 39-14 win over Southeastern Louisiana, a 28-24 loss at Tulane and a 41-36 win over Ohio. The Tulane game stings: South Alabama held a fourth-quarter lead before the Green Wave scored with 77 seconds left. Major Applewhite is in his third year as head coach (13-15 at South Alabama, 28-26 career). The roster has 60 newcomers — 32 freshmen and 28 transfers — and 44% returning production (105th nationally). Defensive coordinator Todd Orlando is reunited with Applewhite from their time at Houston (22-4 in 2015-16, including a 13-1 season). South Alabama has scored on the opening possession in all three games and is converting 52.1% of its third downs — 17th nationally.

About Kentucky

Will Stein is in his first season as head coach — the youngest at Kentucky since Fran Curci in 1973. He's a Kentucky native, the son of former UK letterwinner Matt Stein (defensive end, 1983-84), and grew up sitting in section 128, row 13 of what was then Commonwealth Stadium. Stein hired Joe Sloan from LSU as offensive coordinator — Sloan helped shape Jayden Daniels' Heisman trajectory — and Jay Bateman from Texas A&M as defensive coordinator, where Bateman helped the Aggies to an 11-2 record and their first College Football Playoff appearance. The transfer portal class ranked No. 8 (Athletic), No. 9 (ESPN) and No. 10 (247Sports), adding more than 20,000 career snaps. Only one returning offensive starter (tight end Willie Rodriguez). Six returning defensive starters. Kentucky's record through three games: 45-13 over Youngstown State, a 45-17 loss to No. 12 Alabama and the 31-21 win at No. 9 Texas A&M.

Key Players to Watch

Kenny Minchey, QB, Kentucky (#3, 6-2, 211, Sr.) — Named to the Davey O'Brien Great 8 on Sept. 21. Through three games: 50-of-76, 699 yards, 7 TDs, 1 INT, 65.8% completion rate. His 301 passing yards in the season opener set a Kentucky record for a season opener. PFF offensive grade: 57.4. PFF passing grade: 57.9.

Keenan Phillips, RB, South Alabama (Jr.) — Named to the Paul Hornung Award Honor Roll after rushing for a game-high 116 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries against Ohio. Ranks among the top 25 nationally in all-purpose yards. PFF offensive grade: 74.6, PFF run grade: 74.5.

Jordan Castell, FS, Kentucky (#5, 6-2, 211, Sr.) — Team-high 29 tackles and 2 interceptions through three games, including the goalpost-shadow interception that helped seal the Texas A&M win. PFF grades: 70.6 DEF, 85.4 TACK, 86.4 PRSH — and he plays safety.

Brendan Jenkins, WR, South Alabama (#12, 6-0, 194, Sr.) — Has already surpassed his 2025 totals (117 yards, 1 TD in 9 games) with 15 catches for 202 yards and 2 TDs through three games. Posted his first career 100-yard receiving game at Tulane (119 yards). PFF offensive grade: 68.6.

Injury Report / Availability

South Alabama (from Applewhite presser, Week 4)

Player | Pos | Status | Notes

Bishop Davenport | QB | Questionable | Missed Ohio game with minor injury. Applewhite: "He was able to go Saturday in some capacity, but we wanted to just be smart about what capacity he plays in and be fair to him so he can perform at a high level. I'll get more from the trainers today and tomorrow and throughout the week I'll have a better idea of where he really is."

Applewhite on the QB situation: "I do feel blessed and fortunate to have two great young men that can play quarterback for us."

Kentucky

No specific injuries noted in Stein's press conference or Kentucky's game notes. Three Comeback Player of the Year Watch List players — CJ Baxter Jr. (knee: ACL, LCL, PCL in August 2024), Aaron Gates (torn ACL 2024, torn labrum 2025) and Sam Greene (ACL, Nov. 2025) — all appear active on the season.

When South Alabama Has the Ball

South Alabama is averaging 443.7 total yards per game — 229.7 rushing, 214.0 passing — and 34.7 points per game.

Trae'von Dunbar (81.7 PFF OFF, 78.5 RUN), PJ Martin (79.5 PFF OFF, 81.3 RUN — the highest run grade in the backfield) and Keenan Phillips (74.6 PFF OFF, 74.5 RUN) split carries in a three-back rotation. Applewhite on the offensive line: "They've done really well. And this will be their biggest test thus far this weekend in Lexington. Our left tackle's at UCLA, our right tackle's at Georgia Tech, our left guard's at Baylor, our center's at Tulsa from last year's offensive line. So, it's a brand new group. So, they've done a hell of a job."

PFF pass-blocking grades for that line: Ethan Hubbard (87.4), Reese Osei-Wusu (83.1, 77.7 overall OFF — highest among the linemen), Jamal Siler (79.9), Shalik Hubbard (72.0) and Kenton Jerido at center (50.6 — the weakest starter).

Bishop Davenport started the first two games (40-of-59, 450 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INT). Jared Hollins started the Ohio game after Davenport missed with an injury. Hollins grades higher as a passer on PFF — 79.8 PASS to Davenport's 71.0 — despite fewer snaps. Starter for Saturday is unclear.

Jay Bateman coordinates Kentucky's defense with four-man fronts, pre-snap movement and disguised coverages. Mi'Quise Humphrey-Grace (73.7 PFF DEF, 161 snaps, 6 pressures, 1 sack) has 19.5 career sacks. Tavion Gadson leads Kentucky with 3 sacks this season (63.9 PFF DEF). Lorenzo Cowan grades 83.1 in PFF pass rush on 68 snaps. Jordan Castell, a safety, grades 86.4 in PFF pass rush.

Dominic Wiseman — who transferred from South Alabama — is in the defensive line rotation (19 snaps, 60.7 PFF DEF). He recorded 23 tackles, 3.0 TFL and a sack at South Alabama last season.

Kentucky is allowing opponents to convert 51.2% of third downs (129th nationally) against a South Alabama offense converting at 52.1%.

When Kentucky Has the Ball

Joe Sloan's offense runs on speed, spacing and motion with multiple running backs and a passing game built to create mismatches.

Jason Patterson leads the team with 189 rushing yards on 28 carries and grades 83.5 PFF OFF with an 86.1 RUN grade — the highest on the roster — but has only 79 snaps. CJ Baxter Jr. is the primary back (110 snaps, 71.7 PFF OFF, 74.4 RUN) with 1,019 career rushing yards, 9 rushing TDs and the third-most rushing touchdowns in the SEC this season.

In the passing game, Kenny Darby (78.2 PFF PASS, 10 catches, 183 yards, 2 TDs — a true freshman on the 247Sports Preseason True Freshman All-America team) and Mikkel Skinner (78.7 PFF PASS) are the top targets. DJ Miller has 13 catches for 175 yards and 2 TDs. Nic Anderson grades 50.6 PFF OFF and 51.0 PASS despite his Earl Campbell Watch List nod.

Kentucky's pass-blocking grades by position: Tegra Tshabola (89.9 PFF PBLK), Olaus Alinen (85.7), Coleton Price (82.7), Lance Heard (79.6) and Malachi Wood at right tackle (22.0). Four starters grade above 79.0 in pass protection. The fifth grades 22.0.

South Alabama's defense is allowing 26.0 points and 347.3 yards per game. Mase Lewis (76.5 PFF DEF, 2 sacks) leads the defensive line. Tre'Mon Henry grades 78.2 in PFF pass rush. Jaylen Moson (71.4 DEF, 70.4 COV) is the top cover corner. Damyrion Darby is allowing completions on 8-of-11 targets with a 42.9% missed tackle rate. Cole Blaylock has allowed 7-of-7 targets with a 26.1% missed tackle rate.

Kentucky averages 29:04 in time of possession (96th nationally) — a 7:42 per-game gap against South Alabama's average.

South Alabama Wins If

The turnover-free streak survives against Kentucky's secondary, and the Dunbar-Martin-Phillips rotation controls the clock against a Kentucky team that allowed 100-plus rushing yards in two of three games. (BetMGM historical note: Kentucky was 1-8 last season when opponents rushed 30 or more times, and 1-7 when allowing 100-plus rushing yards.) South Alabama wins time of possession and keeps its red zone efficiency intact.

Kentucky Wins If

Humphrey-Grace, Gadson, Cowan and Castell pressure whichever South Alabama quarterback starts, and the secondary — led by Castell and Ty Bryant (SEC returning interception leader with 4 in 2025, 187 career tackles) — forces the Jaguars' into their first turnovers of the season. Minchey finds Darby and Skinner against a South Alabama secondary with the tackling problems outlined above.

X Factor

Applewhite has not named a starter at quarterback. Hollins outgrades Davenport as a passer on PFF, but Davenport has 15 career starts and ran the offense for the first two weeks.

Coach Speak

Major Applewhite, South Alabama, on Kentucky:

"They've got a super confident head coach. Will was as smart as they get. He's brought juice and energy and confidence into the program and they're all feeding behind him. Schematically they're incredible. ... They're super impressive up front. They're big, experienced. They've got dynamic playmakers around them. ... What they did to A&M — I don't honestly, I don't think I've seen that before. They pushed them around."

Will Stein, Kentucky, on South Alabama:

"This is a really good football team. They're very physical. They have good players. They're confident. I have a ton of respect for Major Applewhite."

The Predictions

Source | Pick | Score | Spread Pick

FanDuel (numberFire model) | Kentucky (90.7%) | — | UK -20.5

ESPN | Kentucky (opening -19.5) | — | —

College Football News (Pete Fiutak) | Kentucky | 38-17 | UK -20.5 (ATS Confidence 3/5)

BetMGM model | Kentucky (89.0%) | — | UK covers (69.5% confidence)

Sea of Blue (Chris Beasmore) | Kentucky | 48-23 | —

PickDawgz (Andrew Jett) | Kentucky | — | UK -20.5

Every available prediction picks Kentucky straight up. The BetMGM model gives Kentucky an 89.0% win probability. FanDuel's numberFire model puts it at 90.7%.

Diehard Bottom Line

The big question around Kentucky is whether this is a letdown opportunity after an impressive performance against Texas A&M, following a loss to Alabama in which the Wildcats led at halftime. South Alabama has the type of team that could make the Wildcats pay if they are not on their game or are looking ahead to the next week's game against South Carolina. The Jaguars can run the football behind a solid offensive line, and thus far, they haven't hurt themselves with turnovers. This is a step up in competition. Kentucky will make enough plays to win comfortably, but the Jaguars will cover the spread.

Pick: Kentucky 41, South Alabama 23

ATS: South Alabama +20.5

Season record (South Alabama):

• SU: 2-1
• ATS: 3-0