Jags Jungle picks: South Alabama at Kentucky

South Alabama moved to 2-1 with a 42-36 win over the Ohio Bobcats last weekend, a game that showed both the best and the worst of the Jaguars. Behind backup quarterback Jared Hollins, who was getting his first career start, and the hard running of backs PJ Marton, Keenan Phillips and Trae'Von Dunbar, the offense ripped off multiple explosive plays and quickly raced out to a lead they never relinquished. However, third-quarter special teams gaffes and the surrendering of several explosive plays on defense, notably to Ohio's third-string freshman quarterback who gashed the Jaguars with several runs and hit on enough deep passes, the Bobcats made sure no lead was safe until the hands team successfully recovered their final onside attempt.

This week South Alabama will face their toughest opponent so far, perhaps the toughest of the season, in the Kentucky Wildcats. Let's see what the panel predicts for this final out-of-conference game.

Doug Konkel

South Alabama has had a pretty good opening to the season. They have stretches of really inspiring football and sit at 2-1, just a whisper away from being undefeated after their narrow, last-minute loss to Tulane. Offensively they are third in the conference in yards (443.7) and fifth in points (34.7) per game and lead the Sun Belt in third-down conversions at 52.1%. Defensively they are ninth in both yards (347.3) and points (28) per game, but there are signs that Todd Orlando's style may be starting to pay dividends, notably in that the Jags are second in the conference in first downs allowed at 15.3.

Yes, all that is very positive news, but now comes the trip to Lexington. Before the season I saw this game as a real upset possibility, but then the Wildcats destroyed FCS Youngstown State, worried Alabama before finally giving way to the Crimson Tide and then went into College Station and bullied a talented Texas A&M team en route to a big upset of their own. Will Stein has shown himself to potentially be an up-and-coming star in the coaching profession and the way he built this roster by beefing up both lines via the portal immediately has made them a solid SEC program once again. They run the ball well enough, pass it efficiently and play solid defense. If there's one advantage that USA has it's that this game follows two physical ones and precedes a game against South Carolina. It wouldn't be surprising if the Wildcat players are ready to relax for a couple of quarters against a Sun Belt opponent. While I think that this possibility, some good coaching and a team that is starting to believe in itself will let the Jaguars keep this one interesting, I can't see them pulling this one off. I believe Kentucky will win this one by more than two touchdowns, but I do believe the Jaguars will cover the 20.5-point spread. The most important thing in this game is to come out of it relatively healthy and ready to start the conference schedule the following Saturday against ULM.

Tres Harrison

This is the big one. South Alabama has played some solid ball and come into week 4 at 2-1. A respectable record with the one loss coming against Tulane in a last-minute loss of the lead. To say that playing this Kentucky team will be difficult is probably the understatement of the season. Kentucky pretty much manhandled No. 12-ranked Alabama for the entire first half of their game before falling behind in the second half. Then, the Wildcats turned around and went to Kyle Field and trounced the ninth-ranked team in America with a wild 21-point third quarter. The Wildcats' offense ripped through the game to gain 408 yards and score 31 points. The defense held strong and pulled in two turnovers. This game will be rough for the Jaguars simply because Kentucky can do so much incredibly well.

South Alabama is coming off of a close win against a tough Ohio team. They played well but it was far from perfect. The Jags piled up a staggering 10 penalties for 91 yards. In a game like this one, every yard is going to count. To be frank, as I've told many people since the preseason, Kentucky is scary. They're big, they're tough, and they've now proven that they know how to win. The Jaguars are going to have to play a near-perfect game to come out on top of this one. No game is unwinnable. The Jags could do this.

I hope we win. I hope our players stay healthy. I hope we put on a show and travel well. I have hope ... however as much as I want to give it to our guys, I'm just not positive we can pull it off. I believe the Wildcats will down the Jags by 24 points.

Caleb Seaver

The good ole annual South Alabama versus a Power 4 game, this time against a Kentucky team that just dominated a top-10 team on the road. Prior to that game, I maybe would have been crazy enough to think the Jags had a chance in this one, but it would take nothing short of a miracle for South to pull this one out.

Last weekend was a good one for the Jaguars. South Alabama handled business against an injury-riddled but still solid Ohio team. The offense in particular looked great, controlling the run game and a solid passing attack despite the absence of Bishop Davenport. The playcalling, while not perfect by any stretch, looked a lot better. The one big problem was the defense. The South Alabama secondary was gashed by a third-string Ohio quarterback. They again struggled to stop explosive plays and were really reliant on turnovers. South Alabama will have to really work and improve the defense as they approach conference play.

Kentucky meanwhile dominated a top-10 (though slightly overrated) Texas A&M. Kentucky ran the ball well, passed the ball well, and while the defense struggled, they got stops when needed. Kentucky is a very physical team, and it will certainly take a lot and a change in offensive style for South Alabama to have much hope in this one. For South Alabama to have any shot, they are going to have to rely on the passing game more, take shots downfield and limit explosive plays. Based on the way Major Applewhite has handled these games the past few years, do not expect them to make many of these adjustments for just this game. Expect South Alabama to show up, collect their check and hopefully stay healthy headed into conference play. My prediction is unfortunately an ugly one for the Jags, 41-10 Wildcats.

South Alabama and Kentucky will kick off from Lexington at 11:45 a.m. CT on Saturday. This game will be carried by the SEC Network, but the South Alabama broadcast on the Jag Radio Network with JT Crabtree, Pat Greenwood and the rest of the crew is the way to go for this one.

Radio — Varsity Network App, Hot 94.1 FM, JOX 660 AM, 104.1-HD3 FM

Sirius XM Channel 994 (channel will change weekly)

Website — usajags.co/ListenLive