The Really Big Preview: Sam Houston at Troy

Troy opens its much-anticipated 2026 season at home against Sam Houston in a game between former Southland Conference rivals meeting for the first time as FBS opponents. The Trojans are coming off their third Sun Belt Championship Game appearance in four seasons and were picked to repeat as West Division champions. Sam Houston went 10-3 and won the New Orleans Bowl in 2024, then collapsed to 2-10 in Phil Longo's first season after KC Keeler left for Temple — a year in which the Bearkats played all 12 games away from Huntsville because of Bowers Stadium renovations.

GAME DETAILS

Matchup: Sam Houston (2-10 in 2025) at Troy (8-6 in 2025)

Date: Saturday, Sept. 5

Kickoff: 6 p.m. CT / 7 p.m. ET

Location: Veterans Memorial Stadium, Troy, Ala. (30,470)

TV: ESPN+ (Will Kollmeyer, Ben Stanfield)

Spread: Troy -16.5

Over/Under: 54.5

Series: Troy leads 7-0-1 (first meeting as FBS opponents; last met in 2000)

THE STAKES

Troy enters the season as the picked Sun Belt West Division champion and has reached the conference championship game three times in four years. That trajectory is the program's identity under Gerad Parker now — not a team trying to get to the title game, but a team expected to get there. The opener is about confirming that expectation with a roster that looks different from the one that earned it. Only one defensive starter returns. Four of five offensive linemen are new. The Trojans need Saturday to set the tone.

Sam Houston and Troy share history. The programs met eight times as Southland Conference opponents from 1996-2000, and Troy leads the all-time series 7-0-1. Saturday is the first time they have played as FBS opponents. Sam Houston is 2-0 against Sun Belt teams at the FBS level — both at neutral sites — but has never won in Troy.

For the Bearkats, the opener is a chance to show that 2-10 was the product of circumstance, not ceiling. This was a 10-win bowl team two years ago. Longo kept his staff intact. The roster has more continuity than it did a year ago. A competitive showing — or an outright upset — resets the narrative for a program that won the New Orleans Bowl in 2024 and still has FBS-caliber talent.

THE NUMBERS

7-0-1 — Troy's all-time series lead over Sam Houston. The schools met eight times as Southland Conference rivals from 1996-2000 and once before that. Saturday is their first meeting as FBS opponents. Sam Houston has never beaten Troy.

19 — Defensive touchdowns for Troy since 2020, the fourth most in the country. The Trojans had five defensive TDs last season, the third most nationally. Donnie Smith's 11 sacks led the Sun Belt.

2-10 — Sam Houston's record in 2025, one year after going 10-3 and winning the New Orleans Bowl. The Bearkats lost head coach KC Keeler to Temple and played all 12 games away from Huntsville while Bowers Stadium underwent a $60 million renovation. They have not opened a season at home since 2018 and have not played a home game since 2024.

46.67% — Troy's opponent red-zone touchdown rate in 2025, the ninth best in the country. The Trojans held opponents to a 77.78% red-zone success rate overall, 26th nationally.

4 — New offensive line starters for both teams. Troy returns only center Cappy. Sam Houston returns only Isaac Sohn. Both teams are breaking in four new blockers in Week 1.

ABOUT SAM HOUSTON (Visitor)

Sam Houston went 10-3 in 2024, won the New Orleans Bowl over Georgia Southern and looked like a program built for sustained FBS success. Then head coach KC Keeler left for Temple. Phil Longo, who came to Huntsville after runs as offensive coordinator at Wisconsin, North Carolina and Ole Miss, inherited the roster — and the Bearkats went 2-10 in his first season, finishing tied for last in Conference USA.

But the 2025 record carries an asterisk the size of Bowers Stadium. The Bearkats played all 12 games away from Huntsville — six true road games plus six "home" games relocated to Shell Energy Stadium in Houston because of a $60 million renovation project. Sam Houston has not played a home game on campus since 2024 and has not opened a season at home since 2018.

Longo kept nearly his entire coaching staff intact for Year 2.

The offense will look different. Quarterback Landyn Locke, a 6-4 sophomore from Rockwall, Texas, took over the starting job for the final three games of 2025 and immediately tilted the offense toward the pass. In the three games before Locke, Sam Houston averaged 194 passing yards and 202 rushing yards. In Locke's three starts, those numbers shifted to 219 passing and 138 rushing. He threw for 615 yards in those starts, including a career-best 281 at Middle Tennessee.

The Bearkats return all four of their top receivers — Chris Reed (460 yards, 5 TDs), Grady O'Neill (38 catches), Coco Brown (237 yards) and Tim Burns Jr. (228 yards). Burns is also the primary kick and punt returner. Running back Alton McCaskill, a graduate transfer whose 1,407 career FBS rushing yards span stops at Houston, Colorado, Arizona State and Sam Houston, leads all active CUSA running backs with 17 career rushing touchdowns.

The offensive line is the question. Four of five starters are new, with only Isaac Sohn returning. The projected starting five includes transfers from Appalachian State (Denell Nix), NC State (Brock Stukes) and Rutgers (Carter Kadow), averaging 6-4, 309 pounds.

Defensively, the Bearkats showed improvement late. They allowed 40.9 points per game through the first eight games, then cut that to 31.8 over the final four while generating 12 sacks in that stretch — including eight against Delaware. Defensive linemen Dylan Frazier and Darien Jackson were named to the CUSA preseason watch list. Sam Houston finished 2025 with a plus-6 turnover margin, its third consecutive year with a positive margin.

ABOUT TROY (Home)

Troy went 8-6 in 2025 — a four-win improvement under Gerad Parker that included the program's third Sun Belt Championship Game appearance in four seasons. The Trojans were picked to repeat as West Division champions entering 2026 and are the only school to appear in multiple SBC Championship Games with a winning record (2-1).

Troy is the lone G6 program to return an All-American — consensus preseason All-American punter Evan Crenshaw — and the first Sun Belt school since 2023 to return a pair of All-Sun Belt First Team picks in Crenshaw and preseason Defensive Player of the Year Donnie Smith.

Sixth-year quarterback Goose Crowder returns for his third season directing the offense, but he will operate behind a rebuilt offensive line with four new starters. Only center Cappy returns. Parker was candid about the change: "It needed to be different. That lineup should look different. We did not play well enough at that position." He brought in co-offensive line coaches Caleb Carbine and Kevin Reiner in an NFL-style structure — a 50/50 split of responsibility designed to send a message about investment in the position. Two newcomers — DL Ty Clemens (Boston College, from Huntsville) and OL Luke Pettit (Furman, Ohio, former wrestler) — were voted team captains by their teammates.

New offensive coordinator Adam Austin arrives from Tarleton State, where his offense led the FCS in scoring at 42.4 points per game while ranking ninth in total offense (457.6 yards). Parker promised a faster tempo with more vertical passing. "You're going to see us move faster at times, move really fast at times," he said.

The defense is built around Smith, who led the Sun Belt with 11 sacks in 2025 and added 14 pounds in the offseason to become an all-down player instead of a pass-rush specialist. Troy has recorded multiple sacks in 35 games since 2022 (26-9 record), the 18th most in the country, with four or more sacks 18 times (16-2), the sixth most nationally.

Troy's biggest concern entering the season is the running game. The Trojans were outrushed in seven of their last eight games. Parker pointed to sack yardage and gap integrity issues on defense as contributors. Troy has won eight of its last nine games when rushing for 100 yards or more.

KEY PLAYERS TO WATCH

Goose Crowder, QB, Troy (#4, 6th year, 6-2, 214) — Third season as the starter behind a rebuilt line with four new starters. Troy quarterbacks rushed for seven touchdowns last season (Crowder had two, Tucker Kilcrease five), the most since 2017. How he operates behind a new front in a new offense will define Troy's ceiling.

Donnie Smith, EDGE, Troy (Sr.) — Preseason Sun Belt Defensive Player of the Year. Led the conference with 11 sacks in 2025. Added 14 pounds in the offseason and is now an all-down player. Parker: "Instead of it just looking like sacks, I certainly believe it'll turn into TFLs and the other things that are associated with playing the run more."

Landyn Locke, QB, Sam Houston (#10, So., 6-4, 220) — Started the final three games of 2025, immediately making the offense more pass-oriented. Threw for 615 yards in those starts, including 281 at Middle Tennessee. First underclassman to start a season opener at quarterback for Sam Houston since Brian Bell in 2011.

Alton McCaskill, RB, Sam Houston (Gr., 6-2, 220) — 1,407 career FBS rushing yards and 17 touchdowns across four schools (Houston, Colorado, Arizona State, Sam Houston). His breakout 2021 freshman campaign at Houston (961 yards, 16 scores) remains his ceiling. His 17 career rushing TDs lead all active CUSA running backs.

INJURY REPORT / AVAILABILITY

Troy:

• None reported.

Sam Houston:

• None reported.

WHEN SAM HOUSTON HAS THE BALL

The Bearkats will test Troy's defense in ways the Trojans did not see often last season. Locke's arrival shifted Sam Houston from a balanced, run-first attack to a pass-leaning offense — 219 passing yards per game in his three starts, up from 194 in the games before him. He has the arm and the size (6-4, 220) to challenge a Troy secondary that returns limited experience, and he has four receivers who have caught passes together for a full season.

The receiving corps is the strength of this offense. Reed, O'Neill, Brown and Burns combined for 117 receptions and 1,317 yards in 2025. Burns adds a dimension beyond the passing game — Parker specifically flagged him as "the same electric wide receiver that's a problem that got a bunch of touches is also a really good returner." If Burns flips field position on a return, the complexion of the game changes.

On the ground, McCaskill and Brown give the Bearkats two backs who are difficult to bring down. Parker acknowledged as much: "Both backs are very difficult to tackle and are good players. If we don't leverage the football properly and tackle those backs and stop the run with this group, this could give us problems in game one."

The problem for Sam Houston is the offensive line. Four new starters against a Troy front that has produced multiple sacks in 35 games since 2022. Smith is now an all-down player, not a situational pass rusher. If the Bearkat line cannot handle Troy's pressure — particularly on early downs — Locke's decision-making will be tested in ways his three starts last season did not prepare him for. Troy held opponents to a red-zone touchdown rate of 46.67% last season, ninth nationally. Sam Houston may move the ball between the 20s. The question is whether it can finish drives.

WHEN TROY HAS THE BALL

The first look at Adam Austin's offense is the most anticipated element of Troy's opener. Austin's Tarleton State offense led the FCS in scoring at 42.4 points per game. Parker promised faster tempo and more vertical passing. The skill position rooms are deep — Parker called the wide receiver group the deepest of his three years at Troy.

The offensive line is the variable. Four new starters, including captain Luke Pettit from Furman, who described his play style as "a gnat you're trying to swat away." Parker overhauled the group because he had to: "We did not play well enough at that position." The NFL-style co-coaching structure with Carbine and Reiner signals how seriously the staff took the rebuild. Troy's strength and conditioning program under Ben Sers focused on making the big men slimmer and faster — more Olympic lifts, more single-leg movements, better start-and-stop mechanics.

Troy was outrushed in seven of its last eight games. That has to change. The Trojans have won eight of their last nine games when rushing for 100 yards or more. Establishing the ground game early behind Cappy and the new starters would validate the offseason investment and take pressure off Crowder, who was sacked too often last season. Parker was direct about it: "Sack yardage and loss yardage plays kill rushing as well. And that was something that was huge for us last year."

Sam Houston's defense runs predominantly three-down fronts and pressures aggressively. The Bearkats improved late in 2025, cutting their points allowed from 40.9 per game (first eight) to 31.8 (final four) and generating 12 sacks in that stretch. Sam Houston also finished with a plus-6 turnover margin for the third straight year. Turnovers are a program identity, not a fluke. If Crowder gets careless against the blitz, Sam Houston has shown it can capitalize.

SAM HOUSTON WINS IF

• The turnover margin favors the Bearkats. Sam Houston has posted a positive turnover margin three straight years. Troy's rebuilt offense, with a new line and new scheme, might be vulnerable to early-game mistakes.
• Burns flips the field. A punt return or kickoff return for a score — or even a return that sets up a short field — changes the math for a team that struggled to sustain drives last season.
• Troy's offensive line struggles in its first live game together. Parker rebuilt the unit because it was not good enough. The new group has not played a snap that counts. If the Sam Houston front can get pressure and create negative plays, Crowder's rhythm in a new offense never develops.
• Locke plays beyond his experience level. His three starts showed a quarterback who tilted the offense toward his strengths. If he can manage the game, protect the ball and hit the receivers he already has chemistry with, Sam Houston stays in this game longer than the spread suggests.

TROY WINS IF

• The defensive front sets the tone early. Smith and the Troy pass rush have the talent and depth to overwhelm Sam Houston's rebuilt offensive line. Four or more sacks would be consistent with Troy's recent history (16-2 when recording four-plus since 2022) and would likely take Locke out of rhythm.
• The running game hits 100 yards. Troy has won eight of its last nine games when reaching that mark. Establishing the ground game behind the new line validates the offseason work and opens up Austin's vertical passing concepts for Crowder.
• Discipline holds. Parker addressed the early-season penalty issues that plagued Troy's first four games in 2025. A clean, physical game at home — the kind Parker described as "do your job repeatedly for team glory" — is the standard. If Troy avoids self-inflicted mistakes, the talent gap takes care of the rest.
• Crenshaw controls field position. The consensus All-American punter won Troy games last season "when we weren't very good statistically in other areas," as Parker put it. Crenshaw pinning Sam Houston deep and forcing the Bearkats to drive the length of the field behind a new offensive line is a quiet advantage that compounds over four quarters.

X FACTOR

Tim Burns Jr., WR/KR, Sam Houston. Parker called him out by name — the electric receiver who doubles as the team's primary kick and punt returner. In a game where Sam Houston's offense may struggle to sustain drives against Troy's defensive front, a single return that flips field position could be the play that keeps the Bearkats in it. Troy had five defensive touchdowns last season, the third most in the country. But it also allowed Mac Resetich-type returns that changed games. If Burns houses one, the 16.5-point spread becomes irrelevant. If Troy's coverage units keep him bottled up, the Bearkats are left trying to drive 70-plus yards behind a new offensive line against a defense built to create negative plays.

COACH SPEAK

Gerad Parker, Troy:

"I expect us to play well in every phase. You should see a tough physical football team that plays extremely disciplined and hard."

On what discipline means: "Do your job repeatedly for team glory. That's it."

On Sam Houston's backs: "Both backs are very difficult to tackle and are good players. If we don't leverage the football properly and tackle those backs and stop the run with this group, this could give us problems in game one."

On year 3: "Did I get the operation to become its best? Did I push the right buttons for them to become their best? And did I lead them in such a way that says, Coach Parker's a good man. He pushes us the right way and stands for what's right."

Phil Longo, Sam Houston:

On Troy's new offense: "Good coaches usually means they're going to let the talent that they have dictate what they do. The big mystery in defending Troy with our defense is what direction is the offense going to go and what is the character of the offense going to be."

THE PREDICTIONS

Source: Pick (Score) — ATS: ATS — Notes

ESPN FPI: Troy — Troy 84.1% win probability.

numberFire: Troy — Troy 87% win probability.

Dimers: Troy (35-18) — Troy 86% win probability (10,000 simulations).

Doc's Sports: Troy (31-17) — ATS: Troy -17.5 — "Troy enters with a substantially stronger recent record and home-field advantage."

David Racey: Troy — ATS: Sam Houston +16.5 — "This is a lot of points for a team without depth. Take Sam Houston here."

FanDuel: Troy — ATS: Troy -16.5 — Moneyline: Troy -952, Sam Houston +610.

Line: Troy -16.5 (FanDuel -115) | O/U: 54.5

ATS history:

• Troy went 9-5-0 ATS last season. 0-1 ATS when favored by 16.5 or more.
• Sam Houston went 3-9-0 ATS last season. 1-2 ATS as 16.5-point underdogs or more.

Trends:

• Troy has won 13 of its last 14 games against teams from Texas (Texas State 10-1, North Texas 2-0, UTSA 1-0).
• Sam Houston has lost six of its last seven road games against non-AP-ranked opponents.
• Sam Houston has failed to cover the spread in eight of its last nine road games against non-AP-ranked opponents.
• Sam Houston has lost the first half in seven of its last eight games as a road underdog.
• Troy has covered the spread in three of its last four home games.
• Troy has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four home openers.
• Nine of Troy's last 10 games in September have gone UNDER the total.
• Troy is 26-4 SU in its last 30 games as a favorite.

DIEHARD BOTTOM LINE

Sam Houston went 10-3 and won the New Orleans Bowl in 2024. Last season's 2-10 feels more like an aberration — the product of a coaching transition after Keeler left for Temple and the stadium circumstance of playing all 12 games away from Huntsville — than an indictment of the program's ability to compete at the FBS level. Longo kept his staff together, the roster has more continuity and the Bearkats showed real improvement defensively down the stretch.

With that said, Troy is at home, and the Trojans expect to be contenders for the Sun Belt title. That will show up Saturday. Troy's defensive front is too deep and too disruptive for a Sam Houston offensive line with four new starters, and the Trojans have enough on offense — even behind a rebuilt line of their own — to pull away in the second half. But this will not be a blowout. Sam Houston is better than 2-10, and the Bearkats have enough skill at receiver and enough fight on defense to keep this competitive.

• Straight-up pick: Troy
• Against the spread (Troy -16.5): Sam Houston +16.5
• Prediction: Troy 27, Sam Houston 20
• Season record: Week 1 — no prior record