76 teams, same problem: NCAA tournament expansion won’t help the G6

The NCAA made it official this week: the men’s and women’s basketball tournaments are expanding from 68 to 76 teams starting next season. Eight more at-large spots. Twelve “opening round” games over two nights. And $300 million in additional TV revenue over six years to pay for all of it.

Every Division I conference voted in favor. If you’re a Group of 6 commissioner, you might be tempted to think this opens the door wider for your league. Kevin Scarbinsky has some bad news.

On the latest episode of Scarbo Knows, the veteran Alabama sports columnist broke down why the expansion is a raw deal for mid-major programs — and why the numbers make it obvious.

The high points from the podcast

The money tells the story. Scarbinsky notes that Dan Gavitt, the NCAA’s senior vice president of basketball, admitted on a media teleconference that they wouldn’t have expanded without the TV partners kicking in an extra $300 million. About $131 million goes back to schools through revenue distributions. The rest goes to expenses and what the NCAA called “enhancing the NCAA championship experience.” The press release also touted “expanded in-game advertising opportunities” and announced that “previously restricted product categories” — beer, wine, spirits and hard seltzer — will now be allowed during tournament broadcasts. Scarbinsky’s reaction: “Just what we needed, more beer ads in sporting events.”

The extra spots won’t go to mid-majors. Scarbinsky cites data from NCAA media coordinator David Worlock showing that since 2011, 60 teams have been designated as the “first four out” — the four closest to making the field each year. Of those 60, 38 (63%) came from Power 5 conferences. In the last three years, that number jumped to 67%. Scarbinsky says the eight new at-large spots are going to be filled the same way.

Auburn is the poster child. Scarbinsky points to this past season’s Auburn team — 17-16, losers of nine of its last 12 games, including losses to three teams that didn’t make the tournament. Under a 76-team format, the Tigers would have been comfortably in. As he put it: “These eight extra at-large spots are not going to be populated by the UABs and Samfords and South Alabamas of the world. They’re going to be populated by 17-and-16 Auburns.”

The SEC and Big Ten are already eating. Scarbinsky notes that in 2025, the SEC put 14 teams in the tournament and the Big Ten had eight — 22 of 68 total, a third of the entire field from two conferences. This past season it was 19 of 68. Those numbers aren’t dropping, he says. More at-large spots mean more room for underperforming power conference teams, not mid-major programs clawing for a bid.

Conference tournaments will matter less. One of Scarbinsky’s strongest points: with eight more at-large spots, a power conference team finishing 11th in its league at 7-11 may not need to win its conference tournament. The “get hot, play your way in” path that makes March special gets diluted. He argues that’s one of the best things about college basketball — and the expansion undercuts it.

The margin stays thin for the G6. Scarbinsky says mid-major programs don’t get the scheduling opportunities to build the NET rankings and strength of schedule that power conference teams accumulate by default. That margin for error was already razor-thin. Expansion doesn’t widen it.

Watch the full episode

Kevin Scarbinsky breaks down the NCAA’s tournament expansion on Scarbo Knows:

The bottom line

Scarbinsky summed it up cleanly: “They didn’t make the tournament better today. They just made it bigger.”

For the Group of 6, this is a familiar pattern. The CFP is weighing expansion from 12 to 24 teams. The NCAA just expanded the basketball tournament to 76. In both cases, the people making the decisions say it helps everyone. In both cases, the data says the extra seats go to the same programs that already had a chair.

The G6’s path to March hasn’t changed. Win your conference. Win your conference tournament. Leave no doubt. Because the at-large door just got wider — and it still isn’t open for you.

Got a take on the expansion? Join the conversation in the forum.