The Really Big Preview: Samford at UAB

Samford makes the five-mile trip to Protective Stadium on Saturday for just the second meeting in the two programs' history. UAB is 2-2 and coming off its first American Conference victory — a 24-20 win over Navy that featured six sacks. UAB's defense has not allowed a fourth-quarter point in three consecutive games. Samford is riding the momentum of a 45-7 rout of VMI, the first win of the John Grass era and the 500th in program history. This is an FCS-at-FBS game, but with at least four sets of former college teammates on opposite sidelines and players from 10 Birmingham-area high schools on both rosters, the connections run deeper than the matchup classification suggests.

GAME DETAILS

Matchup: Samford (1-3, 1-1 SoCon) at UAB (2-2, 1-0 American)

Date: Saturday, Oct. 3

Kickoff: 2:30 p.m. CT

Location: Protective Stadium, Birmingham, Ala.

TV: ESPN+ (Mike Morgan, Doc Holliday)

Radio: WJOX 94.5 FM (David Crane, Bryant Turner, Landrum Roberts)

Spread: No line posted (FCS vs. FBS)

Over/Under: N/A

Series: Samford leads 1-0. The only meeting: Samford 49, UAB 3 on Oct. 31, 1992 (UAB was Division III)

Prediction markets: Polymarket: UAB 98.5%, Samford 4.0%; ESPN win probability: UAB 91.3%

THE STAKES

There is no conference race impact. Samford is a Southern Conference team visiting an American Conference program. There is no spread to discuss. What this game means sits in a different column.

For UAB, it is a chance to build a winning streak for the first time this season. The Blazers are 2-2 and 1-0 in American play after beating Navy. They have never lost to an FCS opponent as an FBS program — 26-0 since 1996, including five shutouts. They have won nine consecutive games against in-state opponents, outscoring Alabama schools 370-105. Mortensen has talked about developing consistency. This is the kind of game that tests whether the standard holds regardless of opponent. UAB has not won back-to-back games since the end of the 2022 season, so taking care of business here builds some momentum. A loss? Yikes.

For Samford, the stakes are different but real. Grass called it a "practice playoff game" and said: "We won't play anybody FCS-wise more talented than UAB. Even if we were to play in a championship game, they're a very talented team." The Bulldogs went 1-11 last year. They are 1-3 in Grass's first season. A competitive showing at Protective Stadium — or more — would be a statement for a program that had 10,033 fans at its last home game and more than 200 recruits on campus.

This is the second meeting between the programs. The first was 34 years ago. Samford won 49-3 when UAB was a two-year-old Division III program. The context has changed. Both programs have first-year head coaches. Both are building.

THE NUMBERS

113.0 — UAB's passing yards allowed per game, second nationally and first in the American. Over the last three games, opposing quarterbacks have combined for 270 passing yards — none topping 110 individually. UAB leads the conference in total defense at 319.3 yards per game.

221 — Samford's rushing yards against VMI, after totaling 101 combined rushing yards across its first three games (-8, 70, 39). Nearly 69% of the team's season rushing output came in one game.

6 — UAB's sacks against Navy. The Blazers had four sacks in their first three games combined. Burton was sacked 11 times through four games but was also 13-of-20 for 174 yards and a 56-yard touchdown to Ty Mims against Navy.

84% — Gabarri Johnson's completion rate against VMI (22-of-26, 222 yards, 2 TD). Johnson has thrown for 868 yards with five touchdowns and two interceptions through four games. He leads Samford in rushing attempts (35) but has just 29 net yards. Samford has allowed 13 sacks on the season.

8-of-9 and 7-of-11 — If you like field goal kickers, this game has two good ones. UAB's Jonah Delange is 8-of-9 on the season and has been one of the top kickers in the country throughout his career. Samford's Ty Ippolito is 7-of-11 with two makes from 50-plus yards, including a 58-yarder. UAB's defense should dominate this game, but a shutout seems unlikely when the opposing kicker can knock them down from close to 60 yards.

ABOUT SAMFORD (Visitor)

Samford went 1-11 in its final season under Chris Hatcher. Grass, who won six OVC titles in eight seasons at Jacksonville State and then spent four years as an assistant at Clemson, took over in December 2025. He inherited a roster that was ranked eighth in the SoCon preseason coaches poll.

The Bulldogs opened with losses to North Alabama (10-22 on a neutral field), Southern Illinois (18-22) and at Tennessee Tech (19-45). Grass said after the VMI blowout that the team could have "easily been 2-1 or 3-0 in the first three games. Then came VMI — 45-7, 488 yards of total offense, three interceptions forced by the defense, and the first home win in 707 days.

Samford is a passing team by design and by necessity. The Bulldogs average 248.8 passing yards per game (fourth in the SoCon) and 80.5 rushing yards (10th). Receiver Marquise Henderson averages 20.1 yards per catch with an 86-yard touchdown. Kicker Ty Ippolito is 7-of-11 on field goals with a 58-yarder.

ABOUT UAB (Home)

UAB is 2-2 with two distinct identities. The defense has improved every week under first-year coordinator Todd Grantham — PFF team defense grades of 53.1, 65.5, 65.8 and an even better performance against Navy where the Blazers held the nation's second-best rushing team to 249 yards and zero fourth-quarter points. The pass defense ranks second nationally.

The offense has been inconsistent. UAB rushed for 266 yards against ULM, then rushed for just 74 yards at Louisiana. Against Navy, Ryder Burton completed 13 of 20 passes for 174 yards and connected with Ty Mims on a 56-yard touchdown — the best the passing game has looked this season. But Burton has also been sacked 11 times and thrown four interceptions.

Mortensen described the Navy win as a step forward: "I think they know that we kind of feel like we've just scratching the surface. There's so many of them that are just like hadn't played in a while, just weird circumstances in college, hadn't played much, and then now they're playing together for the first time."

KEY PLAYERS TO WATCH

Gabarri Johnson, QB, Samford (#8) — Transfer from Oregon State. 868 passing yards, 5 TD, 2 INT through four games. Leads the team in rushing attempts (35) but has been sacked 13 times. Grass: "He does a good job of just putting the ball in play and seeing the field and taking care of the football."

Marquise Henderson, WR, Samford (#3) — 14 catches, 281 yards (20.1 avg), 2 TD in three games played. Long of 86. The deep threat.

Muaaz Byard, LB, UAB (#35) — 42 tackles in four games, second nationally in solo tackles, fourth in total tackles. Double-digit tackles in three straight games, including 12 against Navy.

Marlin Dean, LB, UAB — 7 TFL through four games. His stat line for the Navy game (12 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 4.5 TFL, 3 forced fumbles, 1 fumble recovery) earned him American Conference Defensive POW. Mortensen on preparing for a player like Dean: "If you don't plan for that person, it can kind of ruin your game."

INJURY REPORT / AVAILABILITY

UAB:

• Nigel Tate (DT) — OUT. Has not played this season. Mortensen last week: "It is overdue, you know, relative to the time of the injury and what the projected return would be."
• Payton Kirkland (OT) — Leg injury at Illinois in the opener. Has not played since.
• Kaleb Brown (WR) — Day-to-day. Has played sparingly.
• KJ Daniels (WR) — Day-to-day. Has played sparingly.
• Jaylen Elder (WR) — Has not played this season.

Samford:

• No injuries reported in Grass's press conference. Two offensive linemen missed the VMI game but Grass said the backups "stepped up and played really well and get those guys back." Their availability for this week is unclear.

WHEN SAMFORD HAS THE BALL

Samford's offense runs through the passing game. Johnson, an Oregon State transfer who began his career at Missouri, has thrown 143 passes in four games and rushed 35 times (29 net yards). The Bulldogs average 248.8 passing yards per game and 80.5 rushing.

UAB's pass defense ranks second nationally at 113.0 yards per game. Over the last three games, no opposing quarterback has topped 110 passing yards. The Blazers have allowed 452 passing yards across four games — Samford has 995.

The running game is the question. Samford rushed for 221 yards against VMI after totaling 101 in the first three games. Grass attributed the breakthrough to improved execution up front: "We took offensive line and kind of converted them and trying to make them run block. They're doing a great job pass blocking and run blocking today." UAB's rushing defense ranks 13th in the American at 206.2 yards per game.

Henderson is the big-play threat at 20.1 yards per catch. Preston Bird (20 catches, 192 yards) and Cayden Aukerman (15 catches, 130 yards, 2 TD) provide volume underneath. Ippolito can score from 58 yards.

WHEN UAB HAS THE BALL

UAB averages 162.5 rushing yards and 163.0 passing yards per game. Against Navy, Burton completed 13 of 20 passes for 174 yards and connected on a 56-yard touchdown to Mims.

Samford's defense has been competitive. The Bulldogs rank third in the SoCon in total defense (337.0 yards per game) and third in pass defense (168.0). They held opponents to 49 total yards through nine drives against VMI before the starters came out. Safety LaShon Young had a 45-yard pick-six in that game and was named SoCon Defensive Player of the Week. Spencer Conn has 27 tackles and Jalen Nelson leads the team with 29.

Grass on UAB's offense: "Explosive plays, man. They got a quarterback that can operate. I think he can run, hurt you with his legs. ... Their offensive line is really talented and those running backs are really good. They got a couple that if they get on the corner, they can house it."

Grass's plan: "We got to eliminate explosives and make them drive the football and keep the ball in front of us."

Mortensen on Samford's defense: "The first thing is just they look very well-coached. You see their stances, their alignments, you see the D-line strike off the ball and extend and use their hands. It feels like their recognition is really good — like their linebackers diagnose things quick."

SAMFORD WINS IF

The passing game hits the ground running before the talent gap takes hold. In the first three games, Samford lost because of slow starts — 10 points at UNA, 18 against SIU, 19 at Tennessee Tech. Against VMI, the Bulldogs started with a pick-six and never looked back. LaShon Young's ball-hawking carries into this game.

The offensive line holds up in pass protection. Johnson has been sacked 13 times in four games for 100 yards lost. UAB recorded six sacks against Navy. The Bulldogs cannot let Johnson absorb hits and still expect to sustain drives.

The defense forces turnovers. Samford created three interceptions against VMI after zero in the first three games. UAB has thrown four interceptions this season.

UAB WINS IF

The defense maintains its standard. UAB has held three consecutive opponents under 110 passing yards. Samford threw for 248.8 per game. The mismatch on paper is significant.

The offense avoids self-inflicted damage. UAB has been sacked 11 times and has committed four interceptions. Against an FCS opponent, clean possessions and red zone efficiency (8-of-9 scoring on the season) should generate points without requiring extraordinary plays.

The run game establishes itself early. UAB rushed for 266 yards against ULM and 116 against Navy. Samford allows 169.0 rushing yards per game. Rod Robinson (263 season rushing yards) and Bam McReynolds (two rushing touchdowns against Navy) are the primary backs.

X FACTOR

The cross-town dynamic. Grass wants to name this a rivalry — "battle of the Vulcan," he suggested. He also said Samford will bring more fans than most of UAB's road opponents. Ten Birmingham-area high schools have players on both sidelines. At least four sets of former college teammates will face each other. Brandon Franklin, a former UAB linebacker, now plays for Samford. Three current Samford coaches — Chuck Dunn, Xavier Robinson and Jake Venables — have UAB ties. The connections make this personal in a way a typical FCS-at-FBS game is not.

COACH SPEAK

John Grass, Samford: "We won't play anybody FCS-wise more talented than UAB. Even if we were to play in a championship game, they're a very talented team. It's been kind of like a national championship game talent levelwise."

Alex Mortensen, UAB: "In terms of their team, I think they played really hard. Man, it really jumps out on tape. I think they have some good athletes and have good speed. So, it's clearly a very well-coached team."

THE PREDICTIONS

Source | Pick | Score / Detail

ESPN (FPI) | UAB | 91.3% win probability

Pro Football Network | UAB | UAB 24, Samford 7

YouWager | UAB | UAB 34, Samford 13

College Football News | UAB | "Almost Certain Win"

Polymarket | UAB | 98.5% vs. 4.0%

Action Network | — | No spread, moneyline or total posted

Consensus: Every available prediction source picks UAB. No spread has been posted — sportsbooks rarely line FCS-at-FBS games. Score predictions range from UAB by 17 (PFN, 24-7) to UAB by 21 (YouWager, 34-13). Prediction markets give UAB between 91.3% and 98.5% win probability.

DIEHARD BOTTOM LINE

It's nice to see these two teams playing each other. If you're a UAB fan, you want an afternoon in which you see the UAB offense break out and the UAB defense continue to terrorize the opposing quarterback. You don't want a close game here after halftime. If you're Samford, you're clearly overmatched. Samford owns one victory over an FBS team in the modern era of its football program. That came in 2013 over a first-year FBS team in Georgia State. Few of these games have been particularly close, but there are some memorable moments where the Bulldogs threw a scare into Florida (losing 70-52 in 2021) and Florida State (losing 36-26 in 2018). UAB should win comfortably. Then it's time to ready for the Battle for the Bones against Memphis next week.

Straight-up pick: UAB 34, Samford 6

UAB season picks record: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS | Overall 126-23 SU, 83-62-1 ATS