Blazers 2026 Schedule Confidence Rankings

Preseason camp is done. The opener is six days away. And somewhere between the optimism of a new coaching staff and the reality of 49 newcomers on the roster, there is a football season waiting to happen.

UAB opens at Illinois next Thursday on Big Ten Network, and from there the schedule does not let up. Six road games. Eight conference games against an American slate that some observers would say is the hardest draw in the league. An over/under of 3.5 wins from Vegas. A projection of 4.1 from SP+.

Alex Mortensen does not sound like a coach counting wins and losses right now. He sounds like a coach counting reps.

"I think in a lot of areas we got what we needed out of camp," Mortensen told Steve Irvine of the Birmingham Banner this week. "Probably like a lot of programs with the reduction in roster size and dealing with a few guys getting banged up, you always wish some of those guys could practice more. That's one thing but that's not anything new."

The good news: the Blazers are getting healthy at the right time. Defensive tackle Chris Spencer and receiver CJ Smith are back. Mortensen said the staff tapered workloads this week, and it showed.

"We are definitely getting healthier," Mortensen said. "It's coming at a good time."

Quarterback Ryder Burton — whose 20-of-27, three-touchdown debut against No. 22 Memphis last October remains the single best thing that has happened to this program since Bill Clark left — has taken a step, according to his head coach.

"I think Ryder has really grown a lot in this camp," Mortensen said. "He's really continued to mature in his overall understanding of football. ... I also think his judgement and decision making has also improved, as well as physical things. I think in every area he's developed."

That is what Mortensen needs from Burton. Not just the arm. The processing. The decisions. The growth from a guy who has five career starts into a quarterback who can manage a full season.

So with camp behind him and the real thing ahead, I ranked UAB's 12-game schedule from most confident to least confident. Not which games matter most. Not which ones are the biggest. How sure am I about what happens when the final whistle blows?

Here is where I landed.

No. 1 — Samford (HOME, Oct. 3)

Samford went 1-11 last season. John Grass is in Year 1 of a rebuild at the FCS level. This is a crosstown game at Protective Stadium, and there is no version of this UAB roster — even with 49 newcomers — that should lose to a FCS team that won one game a year ago. Lock it in.

No. 2 — Charlotte (HOME, Nov. 7)

Charlotte is projected last or near the bottom of the American by every outlet that publishes a preseason ranking. This is a mid-November home game, and if UAB is anywhere near bowl contention, this is the one that probably decides it. The Blazers should handle this at home. Should is doing some heavy lifting in a rebuild year, but this is as favorable as conference play gets.

No. 3 — UL Monroe (HOME, Sept. 12)

The home opener. Bryant Vincent — who ran the program as interim before Mortensen — brings his UL Monroe team back to Birmingham. There is a storyline in there if you want it, but the matchup is what matters. ULM is rebuilding in the Sun Belt. UAB is at home with a week of game-speed experience under its belt from the Illinois trip. Win this and the crowd has something to feel good about heading into the conference opener.

No. 4 — at Temple (Nov. 14)

Temple has been at or near the bottom of the American for multiple seasons. The problem is geography and calendar — a road game in Philadelphia in mid-November. If Todd Grantham's defense is playing together by then, this is a winnable trip. If the defense is still sorting assignments or depleted by injuries, it becomes the kind of close road loss that haunts a rebuilding season.

No. 5 — East Carolina (HOME, Oct. 15)

This is where the schedule gets interesting — and unfair. East Carolina comes to Protective Stadium on a Thursday night, which sounds fine until you realize UAB plays at Memphis the Saturday before. Five days between games. The short turnaround could neutralize everything home field gives you. ECU is a respectable American program, and the Blazers will be running on fumes from the Memphis trip. The question is whether talent at home is enough to overcome tired legs and a short prep week.

No. 6 — at Louisiana (Sept. 19)

A non-conference road game in Lafayette against a Sun Belt program that plays well at home. UAB will be two games into the season, still sorting out rotations and figuring out which newcomers can handle the speed. This is the kind of early-season road game that tells you whether the new pieces fit. Could go either way.

No. 7 — UTSA (HOME, Nov. 21)

UTSA and UAB had some incredible battles during their days together in CUSA. They diverged in the American, with UAB tumbling under Trent Dilfer while Jeff Traylor just keeps winning (although maybe not at the level UTSA fans want) in San Antonio. Although UTSA is my darkhorse to win the league, I think the Blazers will play very tough here at home on senior day.

No. 8 — at North Texas (Nov. 28)

The season finale in Denton. North Texas went 12-2 last year, but the Mean Green lost their head coach and most of their best players followed him to Oklahoma State or other portal destinations. Another former CUSA rival the Blazers used to thump that ascended while UAB fell under Dilfer. Both teams are so made-over that there is no telling what they look like by the season finale. If this were in Birmingham, I would have higher confidence for UAB.

No. 9 — Navy (HOME, Sept. 25)

The conference opener on a Friday night at Protective Stadium. Since joining the American, UAB has not been competitive with Navy. Midshipmen discipline and toughness — and quarterback wizardry — made it a tough matchup for a UAB team that lacked toughness on defense. Blake Horvath is gone, but Braxton Woodson can take it 70 yards every time he touches the ball. This is a great challenge for the new-look defense and an opportunity to perhaps show things are very different in Birmingham this fall.

No. 10 — at Memphis (Oct. 10)

The Battle for the Bones. The rematch. Mortensen's first game as interim was the 31-24 stunner over No. 22 Memphis — a 23.5-point underdog win with a true freshman quarterback making his first career start. That night changed everything for this program.

UAB beat Memphis last year. The Blazers can compete with the Tigers. But Memphis also buried the Dilfer-era Blazers in 2024 in that same building, and the Tigers know the difference between a UAB team that is ready and one that is not. Charles Huff has reloaded, and the Tigers are expected to contend in the American. Going into the Liberty Bowl with a rebuilt roster against a Memphis team that has every reason to want this one is a different kind of test. This game would tell you whether the Blazers are truly on par with the Tigers — or whether last October was an aberration.

No. 11 — at South Florida (Oct. 31)

Brian Hartline went into the transfer portal and came out with a roster full of Power 4 talent. USF is expected to contend in the American this season, and Raymond James Stadium is not a place where first-year programs go to pull upsets. The bye week gives UAB extra prep time, but USF has more talent at nearly every position group. A competitive loss in Tampa would be progress. A win would be a statement nobody outside Birmingham saw coming.

No. 12 — at Illinois (Sept. 3)

Illinois is expected to be a top-25 caliber team in the Big Ten. The real test here is the UAB offensive line, which battled injuries and continuity issues throughout preseason camp. Can they open holes for Roderick Robinson and the running backs? Can they protect Ryder Burton long enough for the passing game to develop? I would feel better about this one if it were not the opener, but asking a team with 49 newcomers to gel on the road against a Big Ten defense in Game 1 is a tall order.

Mortensen knows what he is walking into.

"The time is the time," he told Irvine. "That's just where we're focused right now — each day taking on the installation and taking on preparing for the opponent."

Your turn.

I ranked all 12. Now rank yours.

Which game are you most confident about? Where do you think I got it wrong? Can this team get to six wins to qualify for a bowl game?

Drop your confidence rankings in the comments, tag me on X at @TheTimStephens or email them to tim@diehardsportsnetwork.com. I will publish the best fan rankings next week.