Diehard Picks: Week 4

The No. 1 and No. 2 teams in the Diehard G6 Top 25 meet Saturday in Kalamazoo when Boise State visits Western Michigan on ESPN2. It is the most consequential Group of 6 game of the season and carries real College Football Playoff implications for both programs.

Boise State is the standard-bearer of the G6 and the new Pac-12. Western Michigan defies the reality facing most G6 programs right now — the Broncos finished strong last season, won the MAC championship and managed to keep their best players, something almost unheard of in the NIL and transfer portal era. They showed what that retention means with how they played in the Big House against Michigan. This is a veteran team, playing at home, with an opportunity to make a statement and create a real path to the MAC's first appearance in the CFP.

The winner is not guaranteed anything. They will still have to take care of business and avoid upsets in conference play. But the winner will have a real separator against other teams vying for that playoff slot.

Western Michigan was impressive against Michigan. Lance Taylor has built a really good football team. But Boise State has been here in these types of games so many times. They have been both the hunter when playing the big dogs and the hunted against other G6 programs, year after year after year. They are not going to be caught up in the moment. The crowd is not going to affect them. It will come down to whether Western Michigan can run the football against Boise State.

In the state of Alabama, Navy brings the No. 2-ranked rushing defense in the country to Protective Stadium to face UAB on Friday night on ESPN. Troy travels to Utah State as a road underdog, Jacksonville State opens CUSA play against Middle Tennessee and South Alabama heads to Lexington as a 20.5-point underdog against a Kentucky team that just upset Texas A&M.

Also worth watching: App State at NC State, where the 3-0 Mountaineers are getting 13.5 points, and Tulsa at Arkansas, where the 3-0 Golden Hurricane face a Razorback team that has lost 12 straight games against FBS teams but is expected to be without starting QB Baylor Hayes.

Last week: SU 40-6 | ATS 23-22

Season: SU 91-16 (.850) | ATS 56-47-1 (.544)

Alabama Schools

Navy (1-1) at UAB (1-2) | NAVY -7.5 | O/U 51.5

Pick: Navy 34, UAB 17 — Navy covers

South Alabama (2-1) at Kentucky (2-1) | UK -20.5 | O/U 54.5

Pick: Kentucky 41, South Alabama 23 — South Alabama covers

Middle Tennessee (2-1) at Jacksonville State (2-2) | JXST -8.5 | O/U 52.5

Pick: Jacksonville State 30, Middle Tennessee 21 — Jax State covers

Troy (2-1) at Utah State (0-3) | USU -2.5 | O/U 49.5

Pick: Troy 24, Utah State 21 — Troy covers and wins outright

G6 vs. G6

Boise State (2-1) at Western Michigan (2-1) | BSU -7.5 | O/U 48.5

Pick: Boise State 27, Western Michigan 17 — Boise State covers

Liberty (2-1) at Coastal Carolina (1-2) | LIB -2.5 | O/U 51.5

Pick: Liberty 31, Coastal Carolina 27 — Liberty covers

San Diego State (1-2) at Toledo (2-1) | TOL -2.5

Pick: Toledo 30, San Diego State 24 — Toledo covers

Colorado State (2-1) at UTSA (2-1) | UTSA -12.5 | O/U 57.5

Pick: UTSA 26, Colorado State 24 — Colorado State covers

UConn (2-1) at Miami (OH) (1-2) | M-OH -4.5 | O/U 51.5

Pick: UConn 31, Miami (OH) 24 — UConn covers and wins outright

New Mexico (2-1) at New Mexico State (1-2) | UNM -13.5 | O/U 48.5

Pick: New Mexico 36, New Mexico State 20 — New Mexico covers

USF (3-0) at Bowling Green (0-3) | USF -17.5 | O/U 49.5

Pick: USF 44, Bowling Green 14 — USF covers

JMU (3-0) at Old Dominion (1-2) | JMU -4.5 | O/U 47.5

Pick: JMU 30, Old Dominion 21 — JMU covers

Louisiana (2-1) at Charlotte (0-3) | UL -11.5 | O/U 50.5

Pick: Louisiana 31, Charlotte 24 — Charlotte covers

Southern Miss (1-2) at Tulane (1-2) | TULN -19.5 | O/U 52.5

Pick: Tulane 28, Southern Miss 17 — Southern Miss covers

FAU (2-1) at UL Monroe (0-3) | FAU -13.5 | O/U 58.5

Pick: FAU 37, UL Monroe 17 — FAU covers

UMass (3-0) at Sacramento State (1-3) | MASS -5.5 | O/U 49.5

Pick: UMass 28, Sacramento State 21 — UMass covers

Rice (1-2) at Fresno State (2-1) | FRES -13.5 | O/U 44.5

Pick: Fresno State 27, Rice 21 — Rice covers

UNLV (1-2) at Akron (1-2) | UNLV -13.5 | O/U 49.5

Pick: UNLV 33, Akron 17 — UNLV covers

Ball State (1-2) at Kent State (1-2) | KENT -3.5 | O/U 49.5

Pick: Kent State 34, Ball State 20 — Kent State covers

NIU (0-3) at Georgia State (2-1) | GAST -9.5 | O/U 55.5

Pick: Georgia State 29, NIU 17 — Georgia State covers

Hawaii (1-2) at Wyoming (1-2) | HAW -3.5 | O/U 45.5

Pick: Hawaii 41, Wyoming 28 — Hawaii covers

Kennesaw State (1-2) at Arkansas State (1-2) | ARST -4.5 | O/U 53.5

Pick: Arkansas State 35, Kennesaw State 28 — Arkansas State covers

Oregon State (1-2) at UTEP (1-2) | ORST -12.5 | O/U 55.5

Pick: Oregon State 33, UTEP 10 — Oregon State covers

Army (1-1) at Temple (1-2) | ARMY -3 | O/U 49.5

Pick: Temple 31, Army 28 — Temple covers and wins outright

Air Force (1-1) at Nevada (1-2) | AF -4.5 | O/U 49.5

Pick: Nevada 31, Air Force 27 — Nevada covers and wins outright

G6 vs. Power 4

Sam Houston (1-2) at Texas Tech (3-0) | TTU -35.5 | O/U 54.5

Pick: Texas Tech 42, Sam Houston 10 — Sam Houston covers

Georgia Southern (1-2) at Houston (2-1) | HOU -18.5 | O/U 54.5

Pick: Houston 30, Georgia Southern 21 — Georgia Southern covers

Delaware (2-1) at Virginia (2-1) | UVA -20.5 | O/U 52.5

Pick: Virginia 38, Delaware 20 — Delaware covers

Central Michigan (2-1) at Miami (FL) (3-0) | MIA -41.5 | O/U 54.5

Pick: Miami 55, Central Michigan 10 — Miami covers

App State (3-0) at NC State (1-2) | NCST -13.5 | O/U 54.5

Pick: App State 30, NC State 27 — App State covers and wins outright

Arizona (2-1) at Washington State (1-2) | ARIZ -12.5 | O/U 47.5

Pick: Arizona 27, Washington State 17 — Washington State covers

Tulsa (3-0) at Arkansas (1-2) | ARK -7.5 | O/U 52.5

Pick: Arkansas 30, Tulsa 21 — Arkansas covers

Missouri State (1-2) at SMU (2-1) | SMU -34.5 | O/U 58.5

Pick: SMU 41, Missouri State 13 — Missouri State covers

G6 vs. FCS

Lindenwood at Eastern Michigan | EMU -26.5 | O/U 49.5

Pick: Eastern Michigan 44, Lindenwood 10 — Eastern Michigan covers

Robert Morris at Buffalo | BUF -28.5 | O/U 45.5

Pick: Buffalo 34, Robert Morris 7 — Robert Morris covers

Stonehill at Ohio | OHIO -32.5 | O/U 53.5

Pick: Ohio 45, Stonehill 17 — Stonehill covers

Gardner-Webb at Marshall | MARSH -24.5 | O/U 51.5

Pick: Marshall 38, Gardner-Webb 10 — Marshall covers

NC Central at East Carolina | ECU -35.5 | O/U 56.5

Pick: East Carolina 38, NC Central 10 — NC Central covers

Incarnate Word at Texas State | TXST -30.5 | O/U 65.5

Pick: Texas State 44, Incarnate Word 10 — Texas State covers

LIU at FIU | FIU -33.5 | O/U 53.5

Pick: FIU 38, LIU 13 — LIU covers

Mercyhurst at Western Kentucky | WKU -40.5 | O/U 56.5

Pick: Western Kentucky 30, Mercyhurst 9 — Mercyhurst covers

Houston Christian at North Texas | UNT -38.5 | O/U 59.5

Pick: North Texas 40, Houston Christian 10 — Houston Christian covers