Jags Jungle Picks: Ohio at South Alabama

South Alabama fans tasted the bitter fruit of a close loss last Saturday when the team came up on the short end of a 28-24 score on a soggy field in New Orleans.

Leading by as many as 10 points and holding a three-point advantage in the last few minutes of the game, the Jaguars came up short in an out-of-conference game they sorely wanted in the win column.

Players and fans alike will have to put that behind them as the Mid-American Conference sends Ohio, one of their top programs the last several years, down to Mobile. This game reciprocates the 2024 matchup, when a then-backup quarterback Bishop Davenport was forced to start after an injury to Gio Lopez, which ended in a 27-20 Bobcat win. Davenport now gets a chance for the revenge of that loss in his first-ever start as a Jaguar.

Professional gamblers will tell you that South Alabama will win by 4.5 points according to the spread, but our panel tells you what to really expect.

Doug Konkel

The most encouraging thing I took from the Tulane game was that what we saw against Southeastern Louisiana was still there, showing that it wasn't just by virtue of playing an FCS opponent that the Jags were able to run the football and create pressure on defense. Of course, it wasn't as pronounced against an FBS foe and that resulted in the loss. This game has a lot more mystery to it. Ohio has been solid for years, but this team may not be as good after a coaching change and some personnel losses. However, a strong showing for three quarters before falling 49-21 at Nebraska and an unlikely quadruple overtime win against Jacksonville State, a game in which they were relatively dominated statistically but managed key plays throughout that latter part of the game, indicates they are coming to Mobile thinking they are going home with another win over an Alabama team. That being said, not only will they have to overcome the physical drain of so many extra snaps in their previous game, but they may have to start a true freshman quarterback after their top two signal-callers were knocked out on Saturday with potential concussions. That freshman, Levi Davis, is highly regarded as both a runner and a passer, but his inexperience should be a detriment that defensive coordinator Todd Orlando can take advantage of, especially if they are better able to limit explosive plays than they were against Tulane. Additionally, the Bobcats could also be missing starters at running back, safety and linebacker after those players also were forced to leave the Jacksonville State matchup. USA should be able to move the ball both on the ground and in air against them, as the Gamecocks did before them. If the Jags continue to take care of the football and are able to cash in points when on the opponent's side of the field, they should win this and guarantee themselves no worse than a .500 out-of-conference record. I think they'll do just that and win this game by a touchdown.

Tres Harrison

Well, last Saturday didn't turn out the way we wanted. The weaknesses that we've outlined since the preseason came out. But, after stewing in defeat for a weekend, our performance has me pretty optimistic. South moved the ball incredibly well, but still fell to some great play from the Green Wave.

As upset as I want to be (and was) over Saturday's loss, I do see a lot of light at the end of this week's proverbial tunnel. 478 yards of total offense with Bishop Davenport going 22/32 for 296 yards, eases my concerns with our passing game. Rushing for 182 yards says "Hey, we can still run the ball." But the biggest highlight really comes from the unity of the O-line and Davenport. Tulane recorded one sack on the Jags. The line came up big on Saturday, and it doesn't look like this will change. Defense had some issues with stopping big, explosive plays. This was a foreseen consequence of the scheme, not a dealbreaker.

Ohio is coming off of a thriller of a win against Jacksonville State, but at what cost? Several big time players went out with injuries in the game, including the first and second string quarterbacks. It is unclear who will be available until we see an official availability report, but injuries could swing momentum in favor of the Jaguars nearly as much as a present home crowd. The Bobcats threw for 97 yards and ran for 165 yards. Ohio's offense made most of its headway in the sheer length of its drives as all of their scoring drives tallied playcounts in the teens with their longest plays going for under 20 yards. Ohio's offense seems, on paper, to lack the explosiveness that can victimize the Jags' defense. But, we'll see.

And on the defensive side, Ohio showed a "bend but don't break mentality." It is really hard to win a game when you've allowed nearly twice as many yards as you've achieved. The Bobcats did just that. But, it's still important to note how easily Jacksonville State was able to move the ball. I feel that trend is something that will play to the immediate advantage.

South's offense proved that it can move, and the defense can stop the gut-punch plays that Ohio seems to rely on. If both sides of the ball show up with a chip on their shoulder and a want to win, I see no reason why the Jaguars can't take this at home. I say Jags by 17.

Caleb Seaver

South Alabama lost a close game in which they led most of the game and had some questionable playcalling decisions before the half, again. If it feels like this has happened a lot, it has. This is the 19th game decided by 2 possessions or less under Major Applewhite, 13 of those losses. South Alabama led at the half in 7 of those losses. Needless to say, while there was a lot of good to take away from that game, there was a lot of bad as well.

The good news, South Alabama moved the ball really well. South Alabama outgained Tulane 478 yards to 424 yards. The passing game was effective. Bishop Davenport had a career high in passing yards. Brendan Jenkins had a big game and emerged as a top receiving target. South Alabama ran the ball well, PJ Martin and Keenan Phillips both playing a role. South Alabama took care of the ball as well, no turnovers in the game.

The bad news, the defense struggled against a very average at best Tulane offense. The Jags really struggled to stop explosive plays, with all of Tulane's points coming after a play of 30 yards or more. Tulane's Jaylin Lucas had over 200 rushing yards, with a very impressive game. The Jags secondary looked better, but still gave up over 200 passing yards in the game.

Now for this week the Jags look to welcome another solid, but injury plagued Ohio team. South Alabama is a home favorite, but this will not be a cakewalk against a team that has a good win over Jacksonville State and hung in there against Nebraska week one. The last time these two teams met was the South Alabama debut for Bishop Davenport, who filled in for an injured Gio Lopez. The Jags lost that meeting 27-20. Ohio's offense has struggled so far this year, and with injury issues may be even more depleted. The defense has been decent, especially against the run, but still has some questions.

Despite my lack of knowledge, I have nailed both predictions this year and hopefully I'll keep that streak going this week, as I think the Jags take this one. It will be close, but think the Jags pull it out winning 31-27.

South Alabama and Ohio will kickoff from Hancock Whitney Stadium at 6pm CST on Saturday. You can catch the television broadcast led by Pat Greenwood on ESPN+ or hear the South Alabama broadcast on the Jag Radio Network with JT Crabtree and Company.

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